2013-03-20 12:08:48 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Kazakhstan Agribusiness Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI View: We expect the Kazakh grain sector to outperform, especially as Kazakhstan gets more export opportunities to Central Asia and China. We see limited growth for the livestock and dairy sectors, as export potential for both industries will remain limited. Only domestic demand, which we expect to be strong, could partially encourage domestic production. That said, cheap imports from Russia could put local growers at a disadvantage. We have not identified any major public company operating in the sector that we would highlight.
* Wheat production to 2016/17: -18.6% to 18.5mn tonnes. Efforts to diversify into oilseeds and other field crops and little potential for a repeat of the perfect conditions of 2011/12 will see production fall over
our five-year forecast period.
* Butter consumption growth to 2017: 65.3% to 73,400 tonnes. This will come from increased demand for value-added dairy products on the back of accelerating urbanisation and improvements in infrastructure.
* Beef production growth to 2016/17: 35.7% to 576,700 tonnes. The comprehensive overhaul of the beef herd continues apace as imported breeding stocks improve quality.
* 2013 real GDP growth: 5.8%, up from 5.3% in 2012.
* 2013 average consumer price inflation: 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), up from 5.1% y-o-y in 2012.
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 34.7% y-o-y decrease to US$6.9bn in 2012/13, forecast to grow on average 10.6% annually between 2011/12 and 2016/17.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/552343_kazakhstan_agribusiness_report_q2_201 ..
We have revised down further our forecast for wheat production in Kazakhstan in 2012/13 to 9.9mn tonnes (a 56.7% y-o-y fall) on the back of the latest official estimates from the country's statistical agency. The agency's numbers show a decline in both area harvested and yields. However, the decline in yields was far sharper than the fall in area harvested, as severe droughts drastically reduced soil moisture in growing regions. We have revised down our 2013/14 forecast to 16.0mn tonnes (from 17.0mn tonnes previously) as the Kazakh Ministry of Agriculture announced at the end of January its expectation that area planted to wheat would fall by about 2% to 13.1mn hectares. We believe the recovery in yields will be sufficient to take production 62.4% higher y-o-y in 2013/14, but still below its 2011/12 level.
In the Kazakh poultry sector, we believe the recent US$108mn investment by Israeli technology provider MAD Corporation to build five large poultry farms in the north of the country will unleash growth potential in the sector. This is in addition to strong government support for the industry. Even though the sector has benefited from large feed subsidy programmes, poultry production is still hampered by a lack of breeding material as well as the vulnerability of animals to disease, as well as the lack of high-quality vaccines to treat them. We expect the project to improve poultry farming technology and quality. We also believe these types of projects could attract other private companies to the country, which would boost private investment in the sector in the medium term.
The Board of the Eurasian Economic Commission announced recently it would increase custom duties on several dairy products in order to protect domestic dairy producers against cheap competition in a context of high domestic feed prices and strong demand. The duties were raised on butter, cottage cheese and dairy spreads from 15% to 20%. On other types of dairy products, such as grated cheese and powdered cheese, including Schabziger, duties were raised to 20%. Import duties on feta cheese made from cow milk was taken to 25% of their customs value (15% currently).
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Dairy Outlook
- Table: Kazakhstan Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Kazakhstan Butter Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Kazakhstan Cheese Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Kazakhstan Milk Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Kazakhstan Butter Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Kazakhstan Cheese Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Livestock Outlook
- Table: Kazakhstan Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Kazakhstan Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Kazakhstan Pork Production & Consumption
- Table: Kazakhstan Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Kazakhstan Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Kazakhstan Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Grains Outlook
- Table: Kazakhstan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Kazakhstan Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Kazakhstan Barley Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
- Table: Kazakhstan Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Kazakhstan Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
- Table: Kazakhstan Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012
Commodities Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Table: BMI Commodity Strategy
- Monthly Grains Update
- Table: Select Agricultural Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Europe Fertiliser Outlook
- Europe GM Outlook
- Europe Machinery Outlook
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
- Canned Food
- Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
- Table: Confectionery Volume/Value Sales Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
- Processed Foods
- Table: Processed Meat Volume Sales, Production and Trade Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
- Table: Frozen Fruits and Vegetables Volume Sales, Production and Trade Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
- Baked Products
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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