2013-02-20 05:34:28 - New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI View: Plenty of work is necessary if Nigeria is to extend market coverage and boost capacity, which is needed in order to ensure that power shortages become a thing of the past. There are numerous opportunities in renewables, but investment prospects remain poor. The promise of nuclear over the long term is likely to go unfulfilled, so Nigeria will likely remain over-dependent on oil, gas and hydro resources. Privatisation and regulatory reform appears to be making progress, which should help boost capacity.
The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) announced in December 2012 that the country's power generation capacity had increased to 4,350 megawatts (MW), slightly short of the 4,500MW target that the agency had announced in September, but nevertheless representing
a record high. The NERC maintains that the government is capable of attaining 7,000MW of capacity by December 2013.
Full Report Details at
Key trends and recent developments in the Nigerian electricity market include:
* Several international and local companies expressed strong interest in the acquisition of the 17 generation companies created from the unbundling of Nigeria's Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), according to statements issued by the country's Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) and its National Council on Privatisation (NCP). Ughelli Power, controlling installed capacity of 972MW, attracted the highest interests with nine bids, while Shiroro Hydropower had the least number of bidders with only one potential investor.
* In June 2010, the government revealed that the country will need to spend around US$6bn a year on electricity generation and distribution if it wants to become one of the 20 most industrialised nations in the world by 2020.
* US-based General Electric (GE) has entered into a memorandum of understanding with the government of Nigeria in order to make an investment of US$10bn in new power plants, according to a power ministry spokesman. The company is to own a 10-15% equity stake in the power plants, with the Nigerian government aiming to construct gas-fired stations that could capitalise on its gas reserves. GE has stated its commitment to helping the country achieve 10,000MW of capacity.
* During the period 2013-2021, Nigeria's power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 10.4%, reaching 69.9 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 7.7% gain in gas-fired and a 5.8% rise in hydroelectric generation.
* Following our estimated 6.6% rise in GDP in 2012, BMI envisages average annual growth of 7.2% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from 189mn in 2013 to 209mn in 2021, while net power consumption looks set to increase from an estimated 26.8TWh in 2013 to 64.8TWh by 2021.
During the period 2012-2021, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 6.72%. * Thanks partly to the projected rise in net generation - growth of which barely exceeds the underlying demand trend - Nigeria will struggle to avoid a power supply shortfall. A gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution losses may help balance the market.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Nigeria Snapshot
- Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data
- Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- Nigeria Forecast Scenario
- Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
- Table: Nigeria Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
- Table: Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2021
- Table: Nigeria Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
- Table: Nigeria Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2021
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: Nigeria Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2012 2017
- Table: Nigeria Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2021
- Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
- Table: Nigeria Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
- Table: Nigeria Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2021
- Table: Nigeria Trade Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
- Table: Nigeria Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2016-2021
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: MENA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
- Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
- Nigeria Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Key Policies/Market Structure
- Regulation And Competition
- Table: List Of IPPs In Nigeria
- Nigeria Power Projects Database
- Table: Nigeria Power Projects Database
- MEA Industry Overview
- Glossary of Terms
- Table: Glossary of Terms
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generating Capacity Data
- Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
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