2013-02-28 15:13:01 - New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI maintains its broadly positive view on Peru's freight transport sector. A growing consumer base and robust mining and infrastructure project pipelines inform our view that Peruvian growth will be among the strongest in Latin America over the medium term. Domestic demand will become an increasingly important driver of growth in the coming years, boosting imports. We expect President Ollanta Humala's administration to increase social spending over the coming years, leading to moderate nominal fiscal deficits. That said, our medium-term revenue outlook remains relatively bright on the back of rising exports and a growing consumer base.
Headline Industry Data
* We expect growth of 6.0% in total tonnage throughput at the Port of Callao, to 20.5mn tonnes.
* We predict air
freight volume to increase 7.4%, to 282,000 tonnes in 2013.
* We expect rail freight carried (volume x distance) to grow 3.0%, to 1.3bn tonnes-km in 2013.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/536527_peru_freight_transport_report_q1_2013 ..
Key Industry Trends
Passengers Up, Cargo Down For LATAM
September 2012 was a month of mixed results for LATAM. Although the airline's passenger volumes managed to report an increase of 8.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) against the two constituent airlines' previous results, cargo suffered, marking a 2.7% decline in traffic against only a 0.9% decline in capacity. The load factor for the month was 69.3%, down 1.3 points from 2011.
Callao Expansion Offers Upside Risk View Related Content
BMI notes that an expansion to APM Terminals (APMT)'s Muelle Norte container terminal at the Peruvian port of Callao offers upside risk to our box throughput outlook for the port over the medium term.
Key Risks To Outlook
Upside risks come from the fact that increased private consumption could possibly lead to greater demand for imports. We expect consumption to benefit from President Ollanta Humala's economic policies. Humala's new economic plan does not include increasing taxes on consumers. In fact, Humala will seek to reduce VAT in the coming years, supporting consumer demand.
The recent free trade agreement (FTA) agreed between Peru and Japan and the associated abolition of import tariffs on goods travelling between the two countries should increase trade flows between the two.
Downside risks come in the form of a possible slowdown in Chinese demand, which would hit shipments of copper and other raw materials from Peru.
Report Table of Contents:
- Peru Freight Transport Industry SWOT
- Peru Political SWOT
- Peru Economic SWOT
- Peru Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends And Developments
- Air Freight
- Maritime Freight
- Air Freight
- Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
- Maritime Freight
- Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
- Rail Freight
- Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017
- Trade Overview
- Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
- Table: Key Trade Indicators (US$mn), 2010-2017
- Table: Peru's Main Import Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
- Table: Peru's Main Export Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Table: Peru - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
- Ferrocarril Central Andino
Peru Demographic Outlook
- Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Peru's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Peru's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Transport Industry
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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