2013-03-22 17:08:24 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Poland Freight Transport Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
While the slowdown in eurozone demand has had an important impact in Poland, we expect the country to do reasonably well against the background of a slow regional recovery. The country's external position remains relatively strong, with the current account deficit set to narrow and growth in the real value of foreign trade to accelerate over 2013.
For the economy as a whole, net exports and investment are likely to be key growth drivers in 2013. Looking forward, we expect medium-term GDP growth in the five years to 2017 to average 3.5% per annum - marginally up on the 3.4% the country achieved in the preceding five years.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/552376_poland_freight_transport_report_q2_20 ..
All this is relatively good news for the
country's freight transport modes. The port of Gdansk is set to hold the top position in Poland's maritime sector in terms of both total tonnage and container throughput in 2013, after overtaking the port of Gdynia in terms of boxes handled in 2010, with both major ports expected to post annual growth. Other freight modes will see 2013 volume growth in the 3-4% range.
Headline Industry Data
* 2013 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 3.5% ¦ 2013 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 4.2% ¦ 2013 Port of Gdansk throughput is forecast to grow by 6.4% ¦ 2013 Road freight is forecast to grow by 1.9% ¦ 2013 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 2.7% ¦ 2013 Total real trade growth is forecast at 2.9%
Key Industry Trends:
* Some of the first China-to-Europe freight train services are coming in through Poland. In January a train travelled from Chengdu in the province of Sichuan to the Polish city of Lodz, carrying mainly electrical goods to Europe. It took a total of two weeks to make the journey. Rail offers increased efficiency and lower costs, and in addition, many Chinese manufacturing centres are inland, necessitating transportation to ports. Earlier, in November 2012 Chinese rail operator China Railway International Multimodal Transport Company announced that it had launched a new direct rail freight service between China and Europe. The service will run between the city of Wuhan in central China and Pardubice in the Czech Republic. It will pass through Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland.
* DB Schenker is investing in Poland, a strategy aimed at increasing its exposure to the rail freight sector, which BMI predicts will be a high growth area, and will be seeking to expand its market share. The firm's Polish unit, DB Schenker Polska, has ordered 23 Vectron electric locomotives from Siemens, with the option for a further 13 - the largest order to date for the Siemen's Vectron model. Since its founding in 2001 DB Schenker Polska has been increasing its market share in the Polish rail freight sector. According to the Office of Railway Transport (UTK) DB Schenker Polska accounts for 20.9% of Poland's rail freight market, which PKP Cargo the national operator dominates with a 50% market share. CTL Logistics, another private rail freight operator has a 6.69% market share.
* Despite a number of obstacles, Polish treasury minister Mikolaj Budzanowski has promised that the proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG terminal at Swinoujscie will be ready by 2014. The project, estimated to cost around US$855mn, is part of the government's multi-pronged drive to diversify its sources of energy away from Russia. On behalf of the Polish government, state-owned gas pipeline operator Gaz-System will be accountable for the construction of the LNG terminal. The government has also signed a deal with Qatar for supplying LNG once the construction of the LNG port is completed. The supply of LNG to Qatar is likely to begin in 2013.
Risks to Outlook
Continued growth in Poland's freight sector stems from BMI's positive outlook for its economy. Logistics demand will be partly driven by consumers - a section of the Polish economy that is strengthening. However, our forecast is contingent on developments in the eurozone. Should the expected slow regional recovery falter, particularly as a result of renewed worries over sovereign debt, then Poland's growth and freight activity levels will face increased downside risks. An upside risk to our forecasts comes from the continued development of Poland's ports as direct ports of call. There is also potentially higher growth in rail freight as Poland develops as an overland gateway for trade with China.
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