2013-02-01 01:57:22 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Romania Retail Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

The Romanian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags up short-term concerns about the impact on Romania's economic outlook of the uncertain domestic political environment.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Romanian retail market while minimising investment risk. It also explores the impact of renewed uncertainty over the future of the eurozone on the Romanian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

We analyse the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Romanian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/529473_romania_retail_report_q1_2013.aspx


Romanian per capita consumer

spending is forecast to increase by 35% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 33%. The country comes ninth out of 10 in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), although it outperforms slightly on the rewards side.

Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to grow by more than 40%, compared with 20.6% for overall food sales. MGR is predicted to expand its share of the total food market to 60.3% by 2016, when value sales should reach US$11.86bn.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the fact that large-scale infrastructure improvement is ongoing and that Romania will receive substantial influxes of EU funds and loans over the coming years. The EUR7.1bn (US$9.2bn) investment into rural development during 2007-2013 forms part of the national budget.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

* We have revised down our estimates for Romanian real GDP growth to 0.5% in 2012 and 1.7% in 2013, from previous forecasts of 1.0% and 2.2% respectively, and we do not rule out the possibility of a full-year recession in 2012. The Q212 bounce in Romanian economic activity was temporary, with rising external and domestic political headwinds to drive growth lower by year-end.
* Recent data suggest that whatever support there was from private consumption in Q212 petered out in the second half of 2012, with consumer confidence heading rapidly lower in August, and unemployment taking a sharp leg-up in July. With the domestic political environment remaining uncertain until after the December 2012 legislative elections, BMI believes the picture points to a weaker consumer story in Q3 and Q412, which will see private consumption contribute just 0.7 percentage points (pp) to growth in 2012.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Romania Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Romania Political SWOT
- Romania Economic SWOT
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Outlook
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2016
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Romania - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
Regional Retail Outlook
- Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2009-2016
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn, unless stated)
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016
- Regional Retail Trends
Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Romania's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
- Romania Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Leading Retailers
- Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Sector By Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2011
- Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Sector - Estimated Sales Value By Format, 2004-2011
- Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Sector - Average Sales Value Per Retail Outlet - 2011
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail By Format (%)
- Industry Developments
- MGR Players Continue To Expand Despite Economic Challenges
Automotives
- Romania Autos Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Romania Car Sales, 2011-2012
- Electric Vehicles
- Used Vehicles
- Suppliers
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Romania Autos Sales, Production And Trade, 2011-2016
- Sales
- Production
- Trade
OTC Pharmaceuticals
- Romania Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: OTC Medicine Sales By Subsector, 2007-2010
- Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Demographic Outlook
- Table: Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Romania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Romania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

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