2013-09-22 09:00:52 - New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
According to the Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (KAMA), July domestic auto sales came in at 125,689 units, up 2.9% year-on-year (y-o-y). Sales for the first seven months of the year declined 1.8% yo- y, to 802,596 units. Our 2013 sales growth forecast of -1.2%, to 1.4mn units, is well-placed and we are happy to maintain it for now.
Although sales enjoyed a marginal uptick in July, y-o-y growth rates since the start of the year have been mostly negative. While the recent pickup in sales was likely due to the upturn in private consumption which the Korean economy is experiencing, our Country Risk team believes that this is transitory, and we remain downbeat on the economy (see 'Growth Acceleration Untenable ',
Full Report Details at
The burden of the country's high household debt pile will continue to crimp consumer spending in the quarters ahead and we see this weighing negatively on passenger car demand. As such, we forecast passenger car sales to contract 2.0% in 2013, to 1.15mn units.
The production story in South Korea is even more dismal. Barring positive vehicle production growth in January, auto production has declined on a y-o-y basis from February to July. Vehicle production for the first seven months of the year declined 4.4% y-o-y, to 2,618,023 units.
In view of the recent partial/full labour strikes suffered by some of the local automakers, we are downgrading our 2013 auto production forecast to -2.9%, to 4.4mn units, from -1.9% previously. Nonetheless, it is important to note that South Korea has been a net vehicle exporter for a long time, with more than 60% of its auto production exported to other markets. We also expect imported brands to continue growing their market share, due to the growing desire for variety as well as fuel-efficient cars (see 'Smaller, Fuel Efficient Cars Preferred', December 5 2012).
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Production, Sales And Trade
- Table: South Korea Automotives Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: South Korea Automotives Production, 2010-2017
- Table: Trade, 2010-2017
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: South Korea - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Asia Pacific - Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Autos Risk/Reward Ratings Asia-Pacific
- Company Monitor
- Hyundai Motor
- Kia Motors
- Ssangyong Motor
- Renault Samsung Motors
- Asia Overview
- Table: Vehicle Sales May 2013 (Cbus)
- Asian EV Landscape
Global Industry Overview
- Demographic Outlook
- Table: South Korea's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: South Korea's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: South Korea's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: South Korea's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Automobile Industry
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