2012-09-02 16:44:51 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "South Korea Defence & Security Report Q3 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research
The South Korea Defence and Security Report examines the country's strategic position in the North East Asian region and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.
The report examines the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The intention is to provide a clear and concise discussion of these issues. The report's general conclusion is that the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and the succession of his son, Kim Jong Un, has done little to alter the security dynamic on the Korean peninsula. As a result, Seoul will continue
to invest heavily in modern military equipment, and also remain a committed US ally.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/451311_south_korea_defence_security_report_q ..
In particular, the report discusses South Korea's strategy in meeting the North Korea threat. This strategy broadly includes the procurement of advanced weaponry (mainly from the United States); a major effort to develop the domestic defence industry as a means of boosting national security and the economy; and the forging of alliances both in the region, with countries such as China and Japan, and around the world. In BMI's view, the stalemate on the Korean peninsula is now likely to persist throughout 2012.
Belligerent acts on the part of Pyongyang have stalled diplomatic efforts briefly kick-started by the accession of Kim Jong Un. Meanwhile, the North's refusal to deal with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak makes it likely that Pyongyang will wait for the inauguration of his successor - who is due to be elected in late 2012 and assume the presidency in February 2013 - before committing itself to any significant new diplomatic initiatives.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
* North Korea's test launch of a ballistic missile in April 2012 proved a major setback to diplomatic efforts to engage Pyongyang's new leader. Only two months earlier the North had agreed to halt its nuclear weapons and missile development programmes in return for US food aid. However, the acrimony that followed the test provoked Pyongyang into declaring that the deal was off. By the end of May, a third nuclear weapons test - which some analysts had expected to follow the missile launch - had not yet occurred.
* South Korea's major procurement objectives for 2012 are reviewed in detail. These include: the FX-III competition for 40-60 new fighter aircraft; the acquisition of new naval helicopters to fulfil the navy's anti-submarine warfare requirement; and the AH-X attack helicopter programme.
* The report also discusses a plan to invest US$2bn in ballistic and cruise missiles over the next five years. Seoul unveiled two new missile types in Q2, including a cruise missile capable of striking anywhere within North Korean territory, and it now appears to be developing ballistic missiles with longer ranges and heavier payloads.
* The prospects for the South Korean defence industry are also discussed, as the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) targets US$3bn in export sales for 2012. After clinching a US$713mn order from the UK in Q1, Seoul went on in Q2 to sign defence industry partnerships with India, Nigeria, Thailand and Turkey. Most significantly, DSME signed an MoU to help the Peruvian Ministry of Defence to develop and construct new warships. Samsung Techwin also teamed with an Indian company in a bid to sell artillery to the Indian MoD.
Partial Table of Contents:
- South Korea Security SWOT
- South Korea Defence Industry SWOT
- South Korea Political SWOT
- South Korea Economic SWOT
- South Korea Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
- Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013
- Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula
- Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113
- Wild Cards To Watch
North East Asia Security Overview
- The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
- The Geopolitical Importance Of North East Asia
- Flashpoints And Faultlines In North East Asia
- The China-North Korea Border
- Disputed Islands
- The Russia-China Border
- China's Western Periphery
- The Evolution Of North East Asia
- Sino-US Power Struggle To Intensify Over The Coming Decade
- Chinese Influence In Asia: A SWOT Analysis
- US Influence In Asia: A SWOT Analysis
- Table: Asian States And Their Relationships With China
- Emerging Geopolitical Patterns
Security Risk Analysis
- Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- South Korea's Security Risk
- Domestic Politics
- Preview: December Presidential Elections
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Three Reunification Scenarios And Their Implications
- Internal Security Situation
- External Security Situation
Armed Forces And Government Spending
- Armed Forces
- International Deployments
- Table: South Korea's Deployments
- Weapons Of Mass Destruction
- Arms Trade Overview
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Procurement Trends And Developments
- Competitive Landscape
- Table: Key Players In South Korea's Defence Sector
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Armed Forces
- Table: South Korea's Armed Forces, 2000-2009 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: South Korea's Manpower Available For Military Services (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
- Defence Expenditure
- Table: South Korea's Defence Expenditure, 2011-2016
- Table: South Korea's Defence Expenditure By Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
- Defence Trade
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Macroeconomic Outlook
Full Table of Contents is available at:
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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