2012-05-02 04:56:42 - New Fixed Networks market report from Business Monitor International: "Thailand Telecommunications Report Q2 2012"
The launch of 3G services by Thailand's three largest mobile network operators continues to dominate the headlines. Despite a changing regulatory environment that may yet nullify their investments in this area, market leaders AIS, DTAC and True are continuing to roll out services using the spectrum of incumbents TOT and CAT Telecom, and reached nearly 2.2mn subscribers in all by the end of 2011.
Formal 3G licences remain on the agenda for the regulator in 2012, although it is also looking to 2013/14 when 4G licences may be issued. However, given the nature of the hastily-concocted 3G partnership arrangements between the five players, their legal status remains undefined and may affect their ability to apply for 3G/4G licences when these are
ultimately issued. We also remain far from confident that the regulator will be ready to begin the licence auctions within the timeframe it has set out.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/359629_thailand_telecommunications_report_q2 ..
AIS and DTAC reported strong customer additions in Q411 despite severe flooding in parts of their coverage areas. We believe that Bangkok-centric TrueMove was more exposed to flood damage than its rivals and as True had not published its Q411 results at the time of writing, we are far from certain that it managed to grow significantly in the last three months of the year. Sluggish growth by TrueMove would offset the stronger performances of the market leaders, so we have not altered our five-year forecasts for the mobile market. We still expect mobile subscriber numbers to grow to 91.666mn by 2016, a penetration rate of 130.6%. However, we have raised our forecast for 3G and now expect there to be 19.007mn subscribers by the end of the forecast period, a 20.7% of the total mobile user base.
Q411 data for the broadband market had not been published by the regulator or key players True and Triple T Broadband at the time of writing, and we have therefore kept our fixed broadband market forecasts as they are. We still expect there to be 5.395mn subscribers by the end of 2016, a penetration rate of 7.7%.A lack of new data and uncertainties regarding the extent of the damage wrought by flooding on fixed-line infrastructure means that we have chosen to keep our fixed-line forecasts unchanged, too. We still expect there to be 5.505mn fixed lines in service by 2016, down from 6.613mn in 2011 as mobile substitution gathers pace in the more affluent areas of the country.
Thailand moved up one place to 13th position in our Asia Telecoms Risk Reward Ratings this quarter as the move to 3G services gave the mature mobile market a welcome boost and increased operators' exposure to higher value non-voice service revenue. Meanwhile, the new regulator is beginning to flex its muscles, with reports emerging that a raft of new rules are being developed to better police the ICT sector. However, it is still far from clear how free from state influence the new entity actually is. Visibility will improve once we see how it tackles the highly politicised issues of foreign ownership, concession conversion and spectrum sales.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Thailand Wireline (Fixed Line & Broadband) SWOT
- Thailand Mobile SWOT
- Thailand Political SWOT
- Thailand Economic SWOT
- Thailand Business Environment SWOT
- Asia Pacific
- Table: Asia Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Telecoms Sector - ARPU - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Fixed Line
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
- Mobile Market Overview
- Table: Thai Mobile Market, Q411
- Table: Thai Mobile Net Additions Market, Q411
- Table: Thailand Operator Subscriber Mix ('000)
- Table: Blended Minutes Of Use By Operator (min)
- Mobile Contract Wins
- Table: Key Mobile Contract Wins
- Mobile Operator Data
- Thailand Market Overview
- Table: AIS
- Table: DTAC
- Table: True
- Mobile Content
- Regional Outlook
- Selected NFC Developments, 2011
- Country Outlook
- Value-Added Services Timeline
- Table: Selected VAS Services (2009-2011)
- Fixed Line
- Wireline (Fixed-Line & Broadband) Developments
- Table: Wireline Developments, 2009-2010
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
- Table: Thailand's Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
- 3G Licensing
- Regulatory Developments
- Key Players
- Table: Key Players - Thai Telecoms Sector
- Table: Selected Operators' Financial Results (US$mn)
- Opportunity For Improvement
- Alcatel-Lucent's Recent Major Contracts In Asia
- True Corporation
- Advanced Info Service (AIS)
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
- Fixed Line
- Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
- Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
- Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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