2012-07-29 16:22:12 - New Healthcare research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI View: The US pharmaceutical market is entering a period of relative stagnation. Patent expiries, fewer insured patients and greater use of rebates and discounts are creating severe headwinds to growth. A major downside risk is reduced tolerance for medicine price increases from payers, both public and private. We stress, however, that the US pharmaceutical market is still the most attractive globally, due to its large size and rapid uptake of newly approved innovative, and therefore high-priced, medicines.
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: US$337.1bn in 2011 to US$343.1bn in 2012; +1.8% growth in local currency terms. Market size increased since Q212 due to new historic data, resulting in an upgraded forecast.
* Healthcare: US$2,708bn in 2011 to US$2,864bn in 2011; +5.8%
growth in local currency terms. Market size increased since Q212 due to new historic data, resulting in an upgraded forecast.
* Medical devices: US$133bn in 2010 to US$139bn in 2011; +4.4% growth in local currency terms. Forecast is up slightly from Q212 due to new historic data.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/436201_united_states_pharmaceuticals_healthc ..
Risk/Reward Rating: The US Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) for Q312 is 79.1 out of 100, which is unchanged from the previous quarter. The country scores well above average for all indicators, except market growth, which is in the low single-digits. Key attributes include transparent regulations, an ageing population and a stable economic/political framework.
Key Trends And Developments
* In May 2012, BMI switched its primary data provider for US OTC medicine sales from the Association of the European Self-Medication Industry (AESGP) to the Consumer Healthcare Products Association (CHPA), which provides more reliable numbers over a longer time frame.
* In May 2012, Swiss pharmaceuticals firm Novartis acquired US dermatology specialist Fougera. The acquisition reportedly cost Novartis US$1.525bn and will allow it to emerge as a global leader in the production of generic dermatology treatments.
* In April 2012, a ruling by the US Supreme Court allowed generic drug manufacturers to challenge attempts from pharmaceutical firms to extend the remit of existing patent descriptions. The ruling overrides a decision by the court of appeals in 2010. It follows Novo Nordisk's efforts to amend the phrasing of a patent covering its Prandin (repaglinide) drug.
* In April 2012, BMI revised upwards its forecast for the US pharmaceutical market, following the receipt of newly released historic data. We now expect combined sales of prescription drugs and over-the-counter medicines to increase from US$337bn in 2011 to US$343bn in 2012, equating to 1.8% growth.
The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) gained the authority to approve biosimilars as part of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPAC Act) signed by President Barack Obama on March 23 2010, which is also referred to as the Biologics Price Competition and Innovation Act 2009 (BPCI Act).
BMI Economic View: With the bounce in US growth in the latter part of 2011 set to moderate as 2012 progresses, we are maintaining our 2012 real GDP growth forecast of 2.0%, followed by 2.4% in 2013. The biggest risks come from abroad, with the European debt and economic crisis representing a constant threat to US economic stability.
BMI Political View: The November 2012 presidential and congressional elections are finely poised. The Republican Party is set to gain ground on the Democratic Party in the Senate, but the presidential race is much tougher to call. The outcome of the elections will be crucial in determining medium-term policy direction. But in the interim we expect continued policy paralysis.
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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