2013-09-16 09:02:11 - New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Venezuela Shipping Report Q4 2013"
Venezuela's shipping and ports sector has been highly affected by the country's unstable political and economic situation. We expect near-recessionary economic conditions to prevail over the coming quarters, characterised by a slowdown in private consumption and exports, which will have a negative knock-on effect on shipping and port volumes.
We believe recently-elected President Nicolas Maduro will continue Chavez's policies of elevated social spending, which will result in sizeable fiscal deficits. Inflation will remain elevated, at the highest level in Latin America, and the operating environment will remain very precarious for foreign multinationals in the country.
Despite the less than ideal operating environment, Venezuelan ports are seeing some foreign investment, with China Harbour Engineering Company involved in building the new container terminal at
the port of Cabello, the largest in the country.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/673315_venezuela_shipping_report_q4_2013.asp ..
Headline Industry Data
* 2013 Puerto Cabello tonnage throughput growth forecast at 1.7%. Slow growth expected to continue over the medium term, averaging 1.6% to 2017.
* 2013 Puerto Cabello container throughput to grow by 3.0%, and forecast to average 3.1% over our forecast period.
Key Industry Trends
Chinese Investment In Ports Sector To Grow: BMI believes that increased Chinese involvement in the Venezuelan ports sector will be beneficial for both parties. For the Chinese the investment will help secure access to the Latin American country's oil and markets for its manufactured goods. For Venezuela, meanwhile, the partnership will bring much-needed improvements to the ports sector, which has been lagging in investment since being nationalised.
Concerns About Corruption In La Guaira: There are concerns about corruption at Venezuela's port of La Guaira after the port's Head of Customs was arrested, along with three others, with VEF4mn in cash. Management at the port's customs operations have said that the arrest was an 'isolated incident' and that operations at the port continue as normal.
Throughput In Latin America And Caribbean Remains Slow; Venezuela Posts Growth: Container throughput in Latin American and Caribbean ports remained sluggish in 2012, confirming the slowdown in the region's foreign trade over the year, due to recession in Europe and slower growth in the US and China, according to the UN's Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). Venezuela, however, managed to post growth as the overvaluation of the Venezuelan currency led to a surge in imports, and therefore activity at ports, as it has became cheaper to import goods than to buy domestically produced products.
Key Risks To Outlook
The one major risk to our bleak financial account outlook is that we could yet see significant investment from more politically allied economies, such as China and Russia. Although we believe the country's business environment remains precarious for private sector investors, Venezuela has already been able to create a US$32bn joint fund with China for development projects. Chinese investment in Venezuelan ports, in particular, provides upside risk to our shipping forecasts.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Puerto Cabello Throughput
- Port Of La Guaira Throughput
- Table: Major Port Data, 2010-2017
- Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
- Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn)
- Venezuela Container Shipping Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
- Petroleos de Venezuela Marina
Shipping - Global Industry View
- Box Supply: Overcapacity Remains, But ETRs Offer Hope
- Table: Q213 Container Vessel Deliveries
- Table: Container Line Mega Vessel Newbuild Plans
- Table: Q213 New Container Ship Orders
- Box Rates: Tough 2013, ETRs Remain The Ones To Watch
- Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Box Demand: Static Outlook Continues, But 2014 Looks Brighter
Global Company Strategy
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company
- CMA CGM
- Evergreen Line
- COSCO Container Lines Company
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: Venezuela - Gdp By Expenditure, Real Growth %
- Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Venezuela's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Venezuela's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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