2013-03-02 15:35:30 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Autos Report 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

Looking at trends in 2012, vehicle sales for the first nine months totalled 64,909 units, an increase of 123.3% y-o-y. This growth reflects the robust nature of the Kazakh economy (with BMI targeting 5.3% GDP growth for 2012, rising to 5.8% in 2013 on the back of stronger agricultural and commodity exports), supported by high levels of private consumption. Moving forward, BMI believes that the opening of the massive Kashagan oil field, scheduled for H113, should prove transformative for the key oil and gas sector, bolstering growth for several years to come.

This oil and gas wealth means that the Kazakh government retains ample capacity to boost public spending in the event of any future downturn. Moreover, with inflation having fallen

to an annual rate of just 4.7% in July 2012, the National Bank of Kazakhstan was then able to cut its key refinancing rate down to just 5.5%, its lowest-ever level. The central bank trimmed interest rates four times in 2012, which should provide a particular boost to those car purchases that rely on financing, with lower rates set to be passed on to consumers.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/541232_kazakhstan_uzbekistan_autos_report_20 ..


In terms of manufacturers, Lada (a brand name of Russia's AvtoVAZ) is the dominant automaker selling on the Kazakh market. Sales of Lada cars rose by 260% in 2011, to 13,255 units. This represented a market share of 35%. Far behind in second place is Japanese Toyota Motor, which sold 1,663 units (4.4% share), followed by GM Uzbekistan (UZ-Daewoo), which sold 1,398 units (3.7%). Other key players on the Kazakh new vehicle market include Hyundai Motor and Chevrolet in the passenger car segment, and Russian truck makers GAZ and UAZ in the CV segment.

With regards to Uzbekistan, there is no available data on the evolution of the new car sales market as a whole. However, according to a September 2012 report on Reuters, some 94% of all new cars sold in Uzbekistan are made by domestic producer GM Uzbekistan - a joint venture between state-run UzAvtosanoat (75%) and the US carmaker General Motors (GM). Given that GM Uzbekistan sold a total of 121,584 vehicles in Uzbekistan in 2011, according to Reuters, this would imply a total market size of around 129,345 vehicles. That said, given GM Uzbekistan's virtual monopoly on new car sales, it is clear that opportunities for other automakers in this country remain highly limited as we enter 2013. High import tariffs and other taxes also act as a deterrent for non-GM purchases within the country.

GM Uzbekistan remains the sole auto producer in Uzbekistan, producing 221,445 cars in 2011, an increase of 2.1% on its 2010 output. The company was planning to raise output to 250,000 units in 2012.

Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Central Asia Auto Industry SWOT
Global Overview
- Global Autos Update: Moderation Will Be Overarching Theme
- PASSENGER CAR SALES, UNITS, 2012
CEE Regional Overview
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings
- Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe
Macroeconomic Forecast
- Kazakhstan
- Table: Kazakhstan - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
- Uzbekistan
- Table: Uzbekistan - Economic Activity, 2009-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Sales - Kazakhstan
- Table: Kazakhstan Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Production - Kazakhstan
- Sales - Uzbekistan
- Table: Uzbekistan Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Production - Uzbekistan
Competitive Landscape
- Market Overview
- Passenger Cars
- Table: Top 10 Auto Companies In Kazakhstan (August 2012 Sales)
- Commercial Vehicles
- Table: Top 5 Commercial Vehicle Companies In Kazakhstan (2011 Sales)
Regulatory Developments
Company Monitor
- GM Uzbekstan
- AziaAvto
Demographic Outlook
- Kazakhstan
- Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Kazakhstan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Kazakhstan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Kazakhstan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- Uzbekistan
- Table: Uzbekistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Uzbekistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Uzbekistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Uzbekistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Forecasting Model
- Sources

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