2013-12-14 09:12:24 - Fast Market Research recommends "Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan Autos Report 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI holds an optimistic outlook on auto production and sales in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Both countries boast solid macroeconomic fundamentals and both are seeing strong demand for cars from their citizens.
Turning to production first, Kazakh auto production looks set for strong growth over BMI's five-year forecast period to 2017. This reflects new production plans by three carmakers; Japan's Toyota Motor, France's PSA Peugeot Citroen and Russia's AvtoVAZ.
Toyota announced its new production plans in February 2013. At that time, the automaker stated that it plans to commence production of its Fortuna SUV in Kazakhstan from late 2014. Following investments totalling some US$35mn, local plants will begin painting, welding and assembling completely knocked-down (CKD) versions of the vehicle. Production, which will start
at around 3,000 units annually and may rise in the future, will be for both the domestic and export markets.
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In March 2013, French auto manufacturer PSA Peugeot Citroen announced that it is to assemble cars in Kazakhstan in partnership with Russian company Agromash Holding. From June 2013, the site was to assemble Peugeot 301, 3008 crossover sport-utility vehicle (SUV), 508 sedan, and Partner commercial van models. Output will initially be 4,000 units, eventually increasing to 10,000. The units will be produced in France, where it will add 300 jobs, but assembled in Kazakhstan, where it will add 150 jobs.
Toyota and Peugeot's plans follow the 2012 announcement by Russian auto manufacturer AvtoVAZ that it is to establish a joint venture (JV) with Kazakhstan companies AziaAvto and SEC in Ust-Kamenogorsk. AvtoVAZ will also reportedly invest US$400mn in Kazakhstan production. Under the agreement, vehicle production of 60,000 units per year will start in 2015. There are plans to increase annual capacity to 120,000 vehicles at a later stage.
For Uzbekistan, despite the problems posed by an ongoing trade dispute with Ukraine, BMI is generally upbeat on the outlook for auto production over the forecast period. For 2013, we are targeting 9.1% growth in output, to 256,585 units, with production then set to rise by a further 34%, to over 340,000 units, by 2017. The most recent production figures for GM Uzbekistan showed output was up by 9.7% over 9M13, to 192,182 units, according to an October 2013 report by the Trend news agency. This bodes well for BMI's full-year target of 256,585 units to be met.
On the sales side, the Kazakh new car sales market saw stellar growth during 2012, with sales up by 120%, at 98,231 units, according to BMI's calculations. This was one of the strongest growth rates seen anywhere in the world over 2012 and bodes well for continued strong performance over BMI's forecast period.
Looking at trends over 2013 year-to-date, new vehicle sales were up by a reported 75% as of end-August 2013, at just under 100,000 units. As such, there are clear upside risks to our current forecasts of a 46.6% increase in sales over the present year. BMI has become more optimistic on the medium-term outlook for the Kazakh new car sales market over the past 12 months, now targeting growth of 69% over the 2013-17 period, to reach in excess of 240,000 new vehicles sold in Kazakhstan in 2017.
For Uzbekistan, where strong demand for new cars is offset by the many challenges facing buyers of new vehicles, including long wait times and the need to pay significant down payments to secure a new car, BMI adopts a cautious approach to forecasting the evolution of the new car sales market over 2013-2017. We are targeting average annual growth of around 5.28%, which should take new vehicle sales to 132,099 units by 2017.
In terms of manufacturers, BMI expects GM Uzbekistan to retain its virtual monopoly on new car sales in that country. This means opportunities for other automakers in this country will remain highly limited as we enter 2014. High import tariffs and other taxes also act as a deterrent for non-GM purchases within the country.
However, Kazakhstan offers more opportunities, with French carmaker Peugeot launching its first dealerships in the country in October 2013. For now, however, Russian car brand Lada remains the dominant automaker selling on the Kazakh market. Over 8M13, Lada had sold 34,756 units, for a market share of 34.8%. Quite some way behind in second place is Uz-Daewoo, the brand name of GM Uzbekistan, on 8.657 units (8.7% share).
In third and fourth place are the South Korean manufacturers Kia Motors and Hyundai Motors, on 7,796 (7.8%) and 7,445 (7.5%) respectively, with Japanese auto giant Toyota Motor currently in fifth spot on 7,030 (7%)
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