2013-12-29 20:12:00 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research
While the Kenyan government is focused on improving the provision of healthcare services, we believe that there is a long way to go before a universal healthcare service can be implemented. Kenya is East Africa's most developed country - yet issues such as the management of insurance contributions and the delayed roll out new regulations regarding the National Health Insurance Fund serve as an example to other African governments promising their population access to universal healthcare.
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: KES47.42bn (US$561mn) in 2012 to KES55.29bn (US$638mn) in 2013; 16.6% growth in local currency terms and 13.6% in US dollar terms.
* Healthcare: KES154.58bn (US$1.83bn) in 2012 to KES179.25bn (US$2.07bn) in 2013; 16.0% growth in local currency terms and 13.0%
in US dollar terms.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/754566_kenya_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_repo ..
Risk/Reward Rating: In BMI's Q114 Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), Kenya is 19th in the Middle East and Africa (MEA). A large counterfeiting industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory deficiencies and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Kenya in a low position in the MEA matrix. Nevertheless, in comparison with many other African markets, most of which are not surveyed by BMI, Kenya offers more commercial promise and a more stable overall business environment.
Key Trends And Developments
Inefficient procurement and supply chain systems, weak quality control procedures and high medicine costs continue to hinder regular access to quality essential medicines in Africa. The efficient procurement of medicines is an important component of an effective medicines supply system, and therefore a major determinant in the quality of healthcare in a country. The East African Community (EAC) has been discussing the prospect of regional pooled procurement of medicines for essential drugs since 2007. In March 2012, the EAC's Medicines Registration Harmonisation Project was successfully launched, securing US$12.5mn in funding.
The prevalence of HIV/AIDS in Kenya dropped to 5.6% from 7.2% between 2007 and 2012, according to the preliminary results of the latest Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey. The fall is mainly attributed to fewer new infections, which are a result of more HIV-positive people being put on treatment, according to Peter Cherutich, the head of prevention at the National AIDS and Sexually Transmitted Infections Control Programme. However, officials fear that these gains will not be sustainable unless the country decreases its dependence on donor funding for its HIV programmes. Additionally, studies have found that earlier antiretroviral treatment could decrease the risk of heterosexual HIV transmission by as much as 96%.
BMI Economic View: The poor performance of the tourism sector will not prevent Kenya's economy from growing strongly in 2014 and 2015. While we have downgraded our forecasts slightly, we expect real GDP growth of 6.1% in 2014 and 6.2% in 2015. Economic expansion will remain around 6.0% - near the level seen across Sub-Saharan Africa - over the duration of our forecast period
BMI Political View: Despite the terrorist attack on the Westgate shopping centre, the politicization of sharp ethnic divisions remains the key threat to Kenya's long-term political stability. Although the 2013 elections were peaceful, voting patterns show that the electorate continues to cast ballots according to ethnicity. Meanwhile, President Uhuru Kenyatta, elected in 2013, is facing charges at the International Criminal Court. This will complicate the country's relations with the West. Terrorism linked to Kenya's military involvement in Somalia is likely to remain a risk, but it does not pose a systemic threat to political stability.
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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