2014-01-05 01:53:30 - New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI believes that Kuwait continues to represent one of the more attractive autos markets of the Gulf region as we enter 2014, with good positive growth potential in both the volume and high-end segments. In H113, new car sales were reportedly up by 8%. This bodes well for BMI's forecasts for total new vehicle sales to rise by 9.1% over the full year, so we have left our forecasts unchanged this quarter. Looking forward, we believe that strong annual growth (in the order of 8-10%) can continue over the remainder of our forecast period to 2017.
Continuing to support our upbeat stance towards Kuwaiti auto sales is a positive economic backdrop. For 2014, BMI recently revised up its GDP growth target
to 2.9% (from 2.6% previously). We now believe that Kuwait's economy should continue to grow at a modest pace throughout the coming quarters, helped by a mild projected rise in oil production and strong domestic demand. We remain cautious on the country's investment outlook; although we note that robust growth in construction loans in recent months and the prospect of a mild increase in government capital expenditure this fiscal year provide encouraging signs for gross fixed capital formation (GCFC), with BMI targeting 5% growth for fixed investment across 2014. This could help lend support to demand for commercial vehicles within the country.
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Moreover, the outlook for private consumption - a key indicator of likely demand for new passenger vehicles - continues to be broadly positive, with BMI forecasting growth of 3.0% in 2014. Fiscal policy will remain expansionary, although we expect a deceleration in current expenditure growth following the 25% hike in public sector salaries in March 2012. The interest rate environment also remains broadly favourable for those Kuwaitis needing to finance new car purchases via loans. The Central Bank of Kuwait has kept the key discount rate at 2% since October 2012, with inflation set to remain relatively subdued, at an annual average rate of 3.5% in 2014, according to BMI forecasts. Consumer credit is still the main driver of the overall expansion in lending, with personal credit (excluding purchases of securities growing by an average of 17.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) over the first eight months of 2013. The recent strengthening state of the real estate market should also provide another boost to private consumption. The value of real estate sales rose by an average of 26.6% y-o-y over 8M13, according to data from the National Bank of Kuwait. BMI retains the view that Kuwaiti banks should see stronger lending activity than in the last few years, and will be able to benefit from solid household expenditure and the ongoing expansion of non-oil economic activity.
Lastly, ongoing efforts to improve Kuwait's business environment and invest more in capital infrastructure - including planned new airport terminals and ports - could well help to drive domestic commercial vehicle sales upwards as well.
Against this backdrop, BMI retains its forecasts for 8.0% growth in new car sales over 2014, a strong growth rate which we feel can be maintained until the end of our forecast period in 2017, when almost 300,000 new vehicles will be sold in the country.
Looking at sales trends over H113, Toyota Motor remains the dominant player on the Kuwaiti new car sales market, selling 23,006 units for a market share of 31.2%. In second place is rival Japanese manufacturer Nissan Motor, which sold 11,036 units for a market share of 15%, followed by Korean manufacturer Hyundai Motors, which sold 6,195 units for a market share of 8.4%. The Top Three manufacturers accounted for over 50% of total new car sales over H113. In fourth place was Kia Motors on 4,816 units (6.5% share), followed by US carmaker Chevrolet on 4,661 (6.3%).
This report also contains a fully updated Company Profile for local Kuwait Automotive Imports Company, which was established in 1936 and is owned by the prominent Al Shaya and Al Sagar families. The company is an agent and representative for Mazda, Peugeot and Geely cars, Eicher trucks and buses, BAW vans and buses, Michelin and BF Goodrich tyres and Mobil lubricants,
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