2013-02-28 15:13:06 - New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI View: Kuwait is set to experience a steady rise in oil output, reaching 3.6mn barrels per day (b/d) by the end of our forecast period in 2021, largely on the back from increased recovery from existing fields. However, over the same period, rising consumption will limit some of the gains in overall output. This is particularly true in the case of gas production, where despite an increase in domestic production to some 19.3bn cubic metres (bcm) by 2021, Kuwait will remain a net importer of gas as consumption continues to rise.
We highlight the following trends and developments in Kuwait's oil & gas sector:
* BMI forecasts Kuwaiti oil production to rise from an estimated 2.6mn b/d in 2011 to
2.9mn b/d by 2016, then over 3.6mn b/d by 2021. Northern oilfields, increased recovery of heavy oil, and efforts to maintain production at existing fields will underline the steady gains in output over our forecast period. Kuwait is also targeting additional output from new exploration, these volumes are more uncertain.
* The government continues to advance Project Kuwait, an ambitious scheme that will see some US$56bn invested in oil and gas projects to raise production to some 3.2mn b/d by 2015 and 3.65mn b/d by 2020. However efforts to secure greater participation from international oil companies' (IOCs) in Kuwait's upstream have consistently been undermined by bureaucratic and political gridlock from Parliament.
* Given the poor quality of Kuwait's non-associated gas reserves, foreign expertise will be especially important as the country seeks to raise domestic production and ease the import burden. Failure of the necessary investment to materialise poses downside risks to our forecasts for gas production, and with oil continuing to supply the majority of feedstock for electricity generation, failures to increase gas production could further undermine volumes available for more lucrative export.
* LNG imports could be supplemented by the re-activation of pipeline imports from Iraq (which have been suspended since 1990).
* Although Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) has announced that it will move ahead with the Al-Zour refinery, the long delays further underscore the country's challenging operating environment. Approval of the refinery and the Clean Fuels Project will allow Kuwait to significantly boost both production and exports of refined products, including low-sulphur diesel and Euro-4 gasoline.
* The outlook for Kuwait's downstream sector remains uncertain, after multiple years of delays to the Al- Zour facility and Clean Fuels Project. Although the recent awarding of project management contracts and regulatory approvals indicate the projects may be advancing, significant downside risk to our forecasts exists.
Full Report Details at
Kuwait's dependence on oil leads to high volatility in the country's export revenues. Given uncertainty with regard to the global economy, and our forecast for slower economic growth in 2013, downside risks could materialise to slow demand for Kuwait's oil exports. However, with sanctions on Iran's oil trade set to continue into 2013, Kuwait will still be well placed to take advantage of reduced availability of Iranian export volumes. At the time of writing, our forecasts see OPEC basket oil prices falling from US$107.05 per barrel (bbl) in 2012 to US$99.10/bbl in 2013, which will have a somewhat detrimental impact on the country's macroeconomic outlook.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Table: Kuwait Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2011-2016
- Table: Kuwait Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Kuwait Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016
- Table: Kuwait Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2016-2021
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Kuwait Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016
- Table: Kuwait Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2016-2021
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Table: Kuwait Refining - Production And Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Kuwait Refining - Production And Consumption, 2016-2021
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Country Risk/Reward Ratings
- Kuwait Upstream Rating
- Kuwait Downstream Rating
- Regional O&G Risk Reward/Ratings
- Table: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings
- Kuwait Energy Market Overview
- Overview/State Role
- Government Policy
- International Energy Relations
- Table: Upstream Projects Database
- Oil & Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Kuwait
- Service Stations
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- Oil Pipelines
- LNG Terminals
- Gas Pipelines
- Gas Booster Stations
- Table: Key Kuwaiti Oil & Gas Sector Players
- Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC)
- Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC)
- Other Companies - Summary
- Regional Energy Market Overview
- Iraq: Abundance of Risk, Abundance Of Potential
- Proven Producers Invest To Lift Output
- Gas Rises, But Consumption Does Too
- Uncertainty In Tehran
Global Industry Overview
- Global Energy Market Overview
- Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison
- Inflection point
- New Frontiers In Production
- Middle East - Regional Appendix
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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