2012-02-15 03:26:23 - New Retailing research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

BMI's Q112 Kuwait Retail Report forecasts that the country's retail sales will grow from an expected KWD2.27bn (US$8.45bn) in 2011 to KWD3.25bn (US$12.09bn) by 2015, despite the persistence of small-scale political discontent in the country. Key factors behind the forecast growth in Kuwait's retail sales are a favourable long-term economic outlook, a sophisticated consumer base and high levels of disposable income.

Kuwait's nominal GDP is predicted to be US$172.78bn in 2011, with 2010's growth rate of 1.1% expected to increase to 6.1% as the economy continues its recovery. Average annual GDP growth of 4.5% is forecast by BMI between 2011 and 2015. With the population estimated to rise from 2.8mn in 2011 to 3.1mn by the end of the forecast period,

GDP per capita is predicted to grow to US$64,820 by 2015. Approximately 80% of the Kuwaiti population are expatriates, while foreign workers crossing the border from Iraq also stimulate the retail market.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/329520_kuwait_retail_report_q1_2012.aspx


In 2005, 73.8% of the Kuwaiti population was described by the UN as economically active, with 37.9% in the 20-44 age range important to retail sales. In 2010, an estimated 74.6% of the population was active, while the proportion of those in the 20-44 age range reached an estimated 39.4%.

A very high level of urbanisation is also contributing to a vibrant retail sector. In 2005, more than 96% of the population was classified by the UN as urban and this is forecast to increase to almost 99% by 2015. According to Arabianbusiness.com, by the end of 2010 the gross leasable area (GLA) in Kuwait's retail sector was estimated to be 1.15mn m2, compared with the 345,000m2 in use in 2006. Property consultancy Colliers International expected Kuwait to have the third-largest supply of retail space in the Gulf by 2010.

According to BMI data, retail sub-sectors that are predicted to show strong growth over the forecast period include consumer electronics. Youthful population demographics, a regional economic boom and a buoyant real estate sector are all expected to drive growth. Sales are forecast to increase by more than 31%, from an expected US$955mn in 2011 to US$1.25bn by 2015. High per capita income is also likely to mean vehicle sales increase by nearly 20% over the forecast period, from an expected 124,026 units in 2011 to 148,329 units by 2015, with strong demand for highend passenger cars.

Over-the-counter pharmaceutical sales are forecast to grow by nearly 31% from US$0.11bn in 2011 to US$0.15bn by 2015.

We forecast that overall food sales in 2011 will represent 30.6% of total retail sales and be worth US$2.60bn. This proportion is forecast to fall to 25.3% of retail sales by 2015, but the value of sales will increase to US$3.06bn. The mass grocery retail (MGR) sector is forecast to be worth US$1.32bn in 2011, representing 50.8% of overall food sales. With a large and high-spending expatriate population and domestic consumers susceptible to Western consumer trends, BMI forecasts that sales will grow to US$1.62bn by 2015, when MGR should have a 52.9% share of the food market.

Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2012 are predicted to amount to US$287.73bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI's macroeconomic database, is forecast at US$788.24bn. In 2012, BMI predicts that South Africa and Saudi Arabia will together account for an estimated 58.0% of regional retail sales, with Israel accounting for a further 15.1%. By 2015, the combined share of South Africa and Saudi Arabia is expected to reach 58.5%.

We put growth in regional retail sales for the period from 2012 to 2015 at 34.6%, or an average 10.4% per annum.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Kuwait Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Kuwait Political SWOT
- Kuwait Economic SWOT
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Outlook
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Kuwait Retail Sales Indicators, 2008-2015
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2011e
Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Kuwait Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, 2008-2015
- Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Sales By % Share, 2008-2015
- Current Trends
Business Environment Outlook
- Kuwait's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
- Kuwait Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: MGR Market Share By Retailer, 2010e
- Table: Structure Of MGR Market - Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2009
- Table: Structure Of MGR Market - Sales By Format, 2004-2009 (US$bn)
- Table: Structure Of MGR Market - Sales By Format, 2004-2009 (KWDbn)
- Table: Value Of Sales Per Outlet, 2009e
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: MGR Sales By Format, 2008-2015
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2009 And 2019
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- Kuwait Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Distributors For Leading Brands In Kuwait
- Computers
- Table: Computer Sales, 2008-2015
- Audio/Video
- Table: AV Sales, 2008-2015
- Mobile Communications
- Table: Mobile Communications Demand, 2008-2015
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- Kuwait Auto Sector SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Auto Sales Overview, 2008-2015
- Industry Developments
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources

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