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"Lebanon and Syria Business Forecast Report Q1 2014" now available at Fast Market Research

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2014-01-04 05:35:08 - Fast Market Research recommends "Lebanon and Syria Business Forecast Report Q1 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available

BMI Ratings - Brief Methodology

Composite Rating

The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings, allowing a ranking of all countries in BMI's emerging markets universe.

Political Ratings

The political ratings are an indicator of political stability, seen as a pre-requisite for a stable economy and business environment. The long-term political rating considers more structural elements such as: Is there a functioning democracy? Are there free and fair elections? Is there separation between party and state? Have recent governments pursued similar, enlightened policies amid a stable political environment? The short-term political rating considers more transient influences such as: Have there been recent large-scale demonstrations or strikes? To what extent have these threatened the political status quo?

Is unemployment currently a potential source of political instability? What is the current position in the political cycle - to what extent is this contributing to political risk? Is the government having trouble passing legislation?

Full Report Details at
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Economy Ratings

The economy ratings assess the degree to which the country approximates the ideal of non-inflationary growth with contained fiscal and external deficits and manageable debt ratios. The ratings use as raw material historical data and forecasts fed in from BMI's country databases: as historical data are revised and forecasts change, so the ratings change. Factors in the long-term rating include GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, real interest rates, exchange rates, the fiscal balance, the current account balance and external debt. A number of other structural factors are also thrown into the equation, including dependence on the primary sector, reliance on commodity imports, reliance on a single export sector and central bank independence. The factors included in the short-term rating are a subset of those in the long-term rating.

Business Environment Rating

The business environment rating is a broad indicator of the investment climate, for both domestic and foreign players. While areas such as competitiveness, finance, openness and environment comprise the bulk of the rating, there is also an important feed from the political and economy ratings. The factors considered include: the state of the national infrastructure, the education system, cronyism/ corruption, red tape, the legal framework, property rights, market access and the corporate tax regime.

Partial Table of Contents:

BMi risk ratings
BMi risk ratings - Lebanon
BMi risk ratings - syria
Middle east - ratings League tables
executive summary - Lebanon
core Views
Major Forecast changes
Key risk to outlook
chapter 1.1: political outlook - Lebanon
sWot analysis
domestic politics
political crisis to continue in 2014
- Growing sectarian tensions in Lebanon are resulting in a continued deterioration of the security situation. Prime minister designate Tammam Salam has been unable to form a cabinet since April 2013, and we do not expect the political crisis to end anytime soon. The economy will be hit hard, with growth remaining well below potential in 2014.
taBLe: poLitica L oVerVie W
Long- term political outlook
political upheaval inevitable in the Long term?
- Political stability will remain difficult to come by in Lebanon over the coming decade. The ongoing civil war in Syria is deepening sectarian tensions, while another military conflict with Israel could trigger institutional change.
chapter 1.2: economic outlook - Lebanon
sWot analysis
economic activity
still in a soft patch in 2014
- We project real GDP growth in Lebanon of 1.7% in 2013 and 2.5% in 2014. Elevated political instability and the ongoing political deadlock will contribute to below potential growth over the coming quarters, with exports and fixed investment set to be particularly hard hit.
taBLe: econoMic actiVit Y
Financing Risks Limited Despite Widening Deficit
- We forecast Lebanon's budget to come in deficit to the tune of 11.9% of GDP in 2013 and 11.7 % in 2014, from 9.1% of GDP in 2012. Despite weakening macroeconomic fundamentals, we believe the government will not encounter significant refinancing difficulties over the coming years.
taBLe: Fisca L account
chapter 1.3: 10-Year Forecast - Lebanon
the Lebanese economy to 2022
Long- term Growth depends on structural reforms
- Lebanon's economy will face a host of structural challenges in attempting to meet its long-term growth potential, with a massive infrastructure deficit, elevated public debt load and ongoing political risks weighing on our outlook through 2022..
taBLe: Lon G-terM Macroecono Mic Forecasts
chapter 1.4: Business environment - Lebanon
sWot analysis
executive summary - syria
core Views
Major Forecast changes
Key risk to outlook
chapter 2.1: political outlook - syria
sWot analysis
domestic politics
syria 'Geneva' peace conference doomed to Failure
- Although a date was recently set for the beginning of the "Geneva II" peace talks, we believe that a political solution to the civil war in Syria will remain elusive. Given that the war appears in a deadlock, while foreign military intervention is unlikely at this stage, we reaffirm our view that the conflict will continue over the coming years.
taBLe: poLitica L oVerVie W
Long- term political outlook
Conflict Scenarios Point To Turbulent Decade Ahead
- President Assad and his regime are fighting for their survival, but regardless of whether it endures or is overthrown, Syria is likely to remain highly unstable for many years to come.
chapter 2.2: economic outlook - syria
sWot analysis

Full Table of Contents is available at:

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at

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