2014-02-07 23:18:03 - Libya Oil and Gas Report Q1 2014 - a new market research report on companiesandmarkets.com
The security risks in Libya that we highlighted could threaten the oil and gas industry´s recovery in 2012 have played out. Production has fallen rapidly in Q313 on the back of resurgence in domestic tensions, which could be exacerbated by growing unrest in the wider North African region. Oil and gas production forecasts have been downwardly revised as a result of these developments, particularly for the short term as political tensions are not likely to be resolved in early 2014. The deficit of greenfield investment, owing to political unrest, will spill over into the long term in the form of slower production growth, as Libya underperforms its raw hydrocarbon potential.
The key trends and developments in Libya´s oil and gas sector
- In view of a deterioration in political stability that has disrupted production, we have further downgraded our oil production forecast, based on expectations for political tensions to persist through the rest of the year; such that there would continue to be a shut-in of oil export facilities. We have revised our 2013 estimate for Libyan crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGL) and other liquids output in 2013 to 870,640 barrels per day (b/d). This has had a knock-on effect on our forecast for 2014 as we expect the current state of unrest to continue. The political impasse could stabilise by 2015, which could then see a rebound of oil production.
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