2013-03-22 17:02:05 - New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Malaysia Autos Report Q2 2013"

This quarter, BMI maintains its bullish 2013 vehicle production forecast, of 10%, based on our view that Malaysia can soon become a key export hub for auto production of a higher value-added nature, such as energy-efficient vehicles (EEVs). This would give the country the potential to close the gap with Indonesia and Thailand, which have overtaken it in vehicle production volume terms.

The Malaysian government is soon to unveil policies on EEVs as part of its National Automotive Policy (NAP) review, by the end of H113. According to Minister of International Trade and Industry, Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed, the EEV segment has been identified as an important driver under the ongoing revised NAP, and this is the segment which the government

wants to open up to foreign competition, in its gradual liberalisation of the country's auto sector.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/552353_malaysia_autos_report_q2_2013.aspx


BMI believes that Malaysia's intention to target EEVs gives it a first-mover advantage and a chance to catch up with Indonesia and Thailand, which have both overtaken the country, in automobile production. As well as the NAP, we also believe that leading carmaker Proton's new mandate by its parent company, DRB-HICOM, to produce 500,000 vehicles annually by 2018, should also provide a nice tailwind to auto production. Although 500,000 is significantly higher than Proton's current annual output of about 150,000 cars per annum, we believe that Proton will continue to increase production gradually across 2013, in a bid to increase its exports to markets such as Australia, Thailand and Indonesia.

Although total vehicle production grew by 6.8% in 2012, this was despite some speed bumps, which the industry had to navigate. Supply constraints due to the 2011 floods in Thailand still hampered carmakers in the first half of 2012, and the imposition of tougher lending guidelines on domestic car loans by Bank Negara, also weighed in local sentiment. However, we believe as the automotive supply chain has largely normalised in Malaysia, growth can be expected to accelerate in 2013.

Looking forward, Malaysia's upcoming revised NAP, together with the arrival of the AEC in 2015, which would incentivise automakers to use Malaysia as an export hub, has made us more bullish on the country's auto sector's long-term growth potential. We now forecast Malaysian vehicle production to grow by 7.8% over the 2013-2017 period, to hit 830,000 units by 2017.

A key risk to our bullish outlook would be any delay in the implementation of the NAP and/or regulatory changes which may come about due to a change in government. Also, just the NAP revision without actual policy reforms, presents a downside risk to our production forecasts.

In terms of new car sales, BMI is now targeting growth of 8.4%, to reach 680,385 units. Malaysia has a strong economy and our Country Risk team forecasts GDP growth of 4.5% in 2013. Furthermore, private consumption growth in 2013 is expected to be a healthy 5.5%, which we believe will continue boosting demand for passenger cars. Rising infrastructure spending will support CV sales as well.

Local carmakers Perodua and Proton remain the dominant players in the Malaysian new car sales market. Perodua sold 189,137 passenger cars in the country over 2012, for a market share of 34.3%, with Proton in second place on 141,120 units (25.6% share). In third place is Japanese automaker Toyota, on 74,171 units (13.4%).

On the commercial vehicle market, Toyota remains the dominant player, selling 30,980 CVs over 2012 for a dominant 41% market share. Some way behind in second place is Isuzu, which sold 10,673 CVs in Malaysia over 2012, for a market share of 14.1%, followed by Mitsubishi on 7,990 units (10.6%).

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Political
- Economic
- Business Environment
Industry Forecast
- Production
- Table: Malaysia Autos Production, 2010-2017
- Sales
- Table: Malaysia Autos Sales, 2010-2017
- Trade
- Table: Malaysia Automotive Trade, 2010-2017
- Passenger Vehicles
- Table: Malaysia - Passenger Car Sales By Manufacturer 2012
- Commercial Vehicles
- Table: Malaysia Commercial Vehicle Sales By Manufacturer 2012
- Suppliers
Macroeconomic Forecasts
- Economic Analysis
- Limited Room For Further Fiscal Stimulus
- Manufacturing In Contraction
- Cooling Exports to Weigh On Growth
- Table: Malaysia - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Table: Business Environment Ratings - Autos Industry Asia Pacific
Company Profile
- Company Monitor
- Proton
- Perodua
- Toyota
- Honda
Regional Overview
- Asia Overview
- Thailand: Sales And Production Will Continue Posting Healthy Increases
- Malaysia: Sales To Grow And Production Finally More Stable
- Sales
- Australia: Sales To Contract Due To Tough Macroeconomic Conditions
- Japan: Bearish On Sales, Production To Remain Subdued
- China: Rebalancing Story To Favour Passenger Cars
- India: Government Regulatory Risks In Play
Global Industry Overview
- Table: Passenger Car Sales, Units, 2012
- Japan To Contract, But US Safe (For Now)
- Europe Over The Worst?
- Even Russia Will Hit The Brakes
Demographic Forecast
- Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Malaysia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Malaysia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Malaysia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Methodology
- Automobile Industry
- Sources

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