2013-12-06 14:42:15 - New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Malaysia's upstream segment could see good days ahead in the short-to-medium term as the completion of both greenfield and brownfield developments brings new volumes of oil and gas online. New gas supplies will underpin continued expansion in the country's liquefied natural gas production based in Sarawak. Consumption growth will limit some of the export gains to be made from growing output, though a reduction of oil and gas subsidies would see a slowdown in the rate of this. The expansion of its downstream capacity could be more challenging, as it would face fierce competition from neighbouring Singapore.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Malaysia's oil and gas sector are:
* Our expectations for growth in its oil and gas
reserves are underpinned by resource upgrades stemming from exploration and development activities in three areas: deepwater, marginal and stranded fields, and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects in mature fields.
* Oil and gas production are set to grow, thanks to the development of large discoveries made in recent year. For oil in particular, investment into marginal fields could support a short-term increase in production till larger and more complex deepwater projects come on-stream.
* We expect oil production to continue climbing upwards from a forecast of 687,300b/d in 2013 to 845,900b/d in 2017. We forecast a peak in production at about 993,330b/d in 2019. However, based on projects in the pipeline, we do not expect Malaysian oil production to ramp-up past the 1mn b/d level within our forecast period.
* A string of prolific discoveries and major projects set to come online between 2013 and 2018 would see gas production continue on an upward trend. Nearly all of these new projects are off the coast of Sarawak, East Malaysia, which will in turn support liquefied natural gas (LNG) production growth at Petronas' LNG complex.
* We are expecting the uptrend in gas production to continue in the short-to-medium term. From a forecast of 68.27bcm in 2013, we project output to hit 80.97bcm in 2017 and continue to climb to 83.62bcm by 2019. Although we currently forecast for a slight fall from 2020 onwards based solely on projects in the pipeline, we highlight that there is significant upside risk to the tail-end of our forecasts to 2022 and will revise these forecasts once more light is given on development plans for announced discoveries.
* Consumption of both oil and gas is set to rise in the short term as demand grows in tandem to economic expansion and facilitated by a generous subsidy regime. However, we expect growth to slow on expectations that subsidies will be gradually reduced over time owing to fiscal necessity, thereby correcting some of the excesses in domestic oil and gas consumption. We expect Malaysia to remain a net oil and gas exporter throughout our forecast period. We have upgraded our forecast for Malaysia's refining outlook, following the inclusion of Petronas' RAPID refinery in our forecasts from 2019. This will bring the country's total refining capacity from 564,213b/d in 2013 to 864,213b/d by 2022.
* A more cautious view is taken on further expansion of its downstream capacity, stemming from concerns that investment could disappoint as a result of fierce competition from Singapore.
Full Report Details at
At the time of writing we assumed an OPEC basket oil price for 2013 of US$105.0 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$101.8/bbl in 2014. Global GDP in 2013 is forecast at 2.6%, down from 2.90% in 2012. This is on the back of our bearish view of Chinese growth particularly in H213, and continued uncertainty about the eurozone. For 2014, growth is estimated at 3.1%.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Oil & Gas Reserves
- Table: Malaysia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Historical And Forecast Data, 2011-2016
- Table: Malaysia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data - Long-term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Malaysia Oil Production, Consumption & Net Exports - Historical And Forecast Data, 2011-2016
- Table: Malaysia Oil Production, Consumption & Net Exports - Long-term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Malaysia Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports - Historical And Forecast Data, 2011-2017
- Table: Malaysia Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports - Long-term Forecasts, 2017-2022
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Table: Malaysia Refining - Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Malaysia Refining - Production and Consumption, 2017-2022
- Revenues/Imports Costs
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings
- The Upstream Leaders
- Resource-Rich Countries Hit By Country Structure
- Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
- Downstream Support
- Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Malaysia - Risk/Reward Ratings
- Malaysia Upstream Rating - Overview
- Malaysia Upstream Rating - Rewards
- Malaysia Upstream Rating - Risks
- Malaysia Downstream Rating - Overview
- Malaysia Energy Market Overview
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- International Energy Relations
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
- Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Malaysia
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Table: Oil Storage Facilities In Malaysia
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- Oil Pipelines
- LNG Liquefaction Terminals
- Table: Malaysia LNG Liquefaction Terminals
- LNG Import Terminals
- Table: Malaysia LNG Regasification Facilities
- Gas Pipelines
- Table: Key Players - Malaysian Energy Sector
- Murphy Oil
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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