2013-03-20 12:08:40 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Malaysia Power Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI View: We have revised down our 2013 electricity generation growth forecasts from 6.6% to 6.1% due to new historical data. Over the near-term, we believe that deteriorating global economic conditions and Malaysia's dependence on exports to China pose a significant downside risk. Our outlook for the Malaysian power sector over the long-term remains relatively sanguine, as we expect modest economic growth and a growing population to drive growth in electricity consumption. In particular, we believe that our view for significant growth in both coal- and gas-fired electricity generation is coming true, though we see potential scope for delays. We have not revised our hydropower figures as our view appears to be playing out.
We have revised down our 2013 electricity
generation growth forecasts from 6.6% to 6.1% due to new historical data. In particular, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) made an upward revision to its thermal and non-hydropower renewable energy generation figures for 2010, while revising down hydropower generation. The EIA also released new data on electricity generation in 2011 reflecting this trend. We have adopted these revisions into our 2013 forecasts, and have revised down our forecasts slightly to account for a higher base.
Full Report Details at
Our long-term outlook for the Malaysian power sector remains relatively sanguine, as we expect modest economic growth and a growing population to drive growth in electricity consumption. The government has also taken pertinent steps to avoid a potential electricity shortage in Peninsular Malaysia by increasing the country's power generation capacity by 4,500MW in the period up to 2017.
Key trends and developments in the Malaysian electricity market:
* The government has said that it would not be changing the electricity tariff until June 2013.
* The government has introduced a number of policies and incentives for renewable energy producers. The country's Sustainable Energy Development Agency (SEDA) is responsible for a number of these programmes, and regularly releases new data on capacity approvals.
* The government has given the go-ahead to begin identifying suitable sites for the country's first nuclear power plant. A budget of US$7bn has reportedly been allocated to the nuclear scheme, which, according to Minister of Energy, Green Technology and Water Peter Chin Fah Kui, is expected to start operations in 2021.
* The country's energy sector is set to become more competitive, following the Electricity Commission's decision to hold a new power generation tender exercise to replace Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with first generation Independent Power Producers expiring in 2016/17. The PPAs would be awarded and renewed based on the lowest cost of electricity generation, with only 50% of existing PPAs to be renewed.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Malaysia Snapshot
- Table: Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
- Table: Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- Malaysia Forecast Scenario
- Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
- Table: Table: Malaysia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2011 - 2016
- Table: Table: Malaysia Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2017 - 2022
- Table: Table: Malaysia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2011 - 2016
- Table: Table: Malaysia Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2017 - 2022
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: Table: Malaysia Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2011 - 2016
- Table: Table: Malaysia Total Electricity Consumption Long Term Forecasts, 2017 - 2022
- Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
- Table: Table: Malaysia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2011 - 2016
- Table: Table: Malaysia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long Term Forecasts, 2017 - 2022
- Table: Table: Malaysia Trade Data And Forecasts, 2011 - 2016
- Table: Table: Malaysia Trade Long Term Forecasts, 2017 - 2022
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Vietnam's Power Development Roadmap
- Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Malaysia Power Risk/Reward Rating
- Key Policies And Market Structure
- Regulation and Competition
- Sustainable Energy Policies
- Malaysia Power Projects Database
- Table: Malaysia Major Projects - Power
- Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB)
- Syarikat SESCO Berhad (SESCO)
- Sabah Electricity Supply Sdn Bhd (SESB)
- YTL Power
- Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB)
- Syarikat SESCO Berhad
- Asia Regional Overview
- Aversion To Nuclear Energy Wearing Off
- Coal To Grow, Supported By Imports
- Table: Glossary of Terms
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generating Capacity Data
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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