2013-02-21 09:09:24 - New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Argentina Power Report Q1 2013"

BMI View: There has been some good news for utilities in Argentina this quarter, with the announcement that the government will permit an increase in electricity prices, in a move to encourage investment in electricity and natural gas infrastructure. However, this will not necessarily equate to an increase in profits, with the government having called for extra income to be channelled into a governmentadministered investment fund. The move illustrates the Argentinean government's obsession with controlling key markets and President Cristina Fernandez's nationalist stance in almost all areas of business. Projects announced include a tender for two hydroelectric power plants, announced in October 2012, progress towards the Garabi-Panambi hydroelectric power project and General Electric's plans to construct a 800-megawatt thermal power

plant in Timbues. These are all good news for Argentina's electricity sector, which is hampered by blackouts, expensive imports and ageing infrastructure.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/536389_argentina_power_report_q1_2013.aspx


Between 2012 and 2016, Argentina's overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 2.5%, reaching 140.6 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 18.3% gain in nuclear-fired generation as new capacity comes online.

Following estimated real GDP growth of 3.0% in 2012, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 4.0% between 2012 and 2021. BMI calculates that net power consumption will increase from an estimated 119.2TWh to 128.4TWh by 2016. During 2012-2016, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 1.88%, but it will increase later in the decade to average 3.6% from 2016-2021. Energy demand continues to rise, but the sector suffers from a lack of investment. The government's decision to allow an increase in electricity tariffs offers some incentive to invest in infrastructure improvements, but as the government itself will control this additional revenue, it is unclear what role the private sector will actually play.

Argentina's power supply shortfall is likely to increase over the short term, but should fall appreciably later in the decade as new capacity comes online. The theoretical net import requirement by 2016 is forecast at 5.5TWh, but this should decrease by 2021 to 5.47TWh.

Key developments for Argentina's power sector this quarter include:

* The feasibility studies for the Garabi-Panambi hydroelectric project, which is jointly owned by Brazil and Argentina, will begin in early
* GE announced plans in November 2012 to construct a thermal power plant in Timbues. The 800MW power station will cost US$770mn, and is expected to be completed in two stages: the first phase will begin operations in June 2014, and the second phase, in 2015.
* In November 2012 the government announced that it will allow utilities to increase tariffs, which have been frozen for over a decade, to fund improvements to Argentina's electricity infrastructure. Extra revenue will be funnelled into a government-controlled fund.

Report Table of Contents:

BMI Industry View
SWOT
- Power
Industry Forecast
- Argentina Snapshot
- Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
- Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
- Argentina Forecast Scenario
- Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
- Table: Argentina Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts 2010-2016
- Table: Table: Argentina Total Electricity Generation Data And Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021
- Table: Argentina Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts 2010-2015
- Table: Argentina Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021
- Electricity Consumption
- Table: Argentina Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts 2010-2015
- Table: Table: Argentina Total Electricity Consumption Data And Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021
- Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
- Table: Argentina Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts 2010-2015
- Table: Argentina Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021
- Table: Argentina Trade Data And Forecasts 2010-2015
- Table: Argentina Trade Data And Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Argentina Power Risk/Reward Ratings
- Rewards
- Risks
Market Overview
- Key Policies And Market Structure
- Regulation and Competition
- Sustainable Energy Policies
- Pricing
- Argentina Power Projects Database
- Table: Argentina Power Projects Database
Competitive Landscape
- Pampa Energia
- Transener
- CAMMESA
- Edenor
- Endesa/Edesur
- Edelap
Company Profile
- Pampa Energia
- Regional Overview
- Latin America Regional Overview
Glossary
- Glossary of Terms
- Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology
- Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry - Data Methodology
- Generation and Consumption Data
- Electricity Generating Capacity Data
- Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
- Sources

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