2013-01-08 16:43:14 - New Materials research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

BMI View: Across all types of metals, we expect subdued growth in both production and consumption in Australia as a weakening global economic outlook, notably China, continue to take its toll on Australia's commodity driven economy. While significant additional global monetary stimulus should help to boost metal prices in the near term, the bout of loosening measures will be insufficient to stem the slowdown and the medium-term outlook for metals remain weak.

The slowdown in the metals industry in Australia is best exemplified by the country's monthly crude steel production, which has continued to slide into negative territory following positive growth in 2010. Weak demand from slowing domestic construction and a cooling export market will continue to undermine Australia's steel industry

in 2013. Crude steel production is expected to contract by 6.5% in 2013 and national production is unlikely to approach pre-crisis levels for many years. The country's two dominant steel producers, BlueScope Steel Ltd and Arrium Ltd (previously known as OneSteel Ltd), has embarked on a series of consolidation plans and restructuring programmes aimed at reducing operating costs and curbing overcapacity amid an environment of weak demand and declining steel prices.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/523852_australia_metals_report_q1_2013.aspx


The majority of Australia's refined metal output is for export, with Asia and particularly China accounting for the largest share. We therefore assign downside risks to our forecasts on the back of a continued slowdown in China's economy. Although economic data out of China has improved slightly in Q412, we believe that this is a temporary phenomenon and expect the downturn for Australia's largest trading partner to resume in 2013. The impact of falling export demand from China in 2012 hinted at the devastating impact that further weakness in the Chinese economy will have on the Australian metal sector, as companies fire workers to keep operations profitable and postpone or cancel investment plans. Moreover, domestic demand for Australia's refined metal production is dependent on the country's economic growth rate, which we forecast will be modest until at least 2016. Hence, any reduction in the growth rate would have a detrimental effect on the consumption of metals.

Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Australia Metals Sector SWOT
- Australia Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecasts
- Aluminium: Slow Growth To 2017
- Table: Australia - Refined Aluminium Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
- Lead: Little Potential For Strong Growth
- Table: Australia - Refined Lead Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
- Nickel: Future Lies In Queensland Nickel's Hands
- Table: Australia - Refined Nickel Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
- Steel: Construction Slowdown To Dominate
- Table: Australia - Steel Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
- Table: Australia - Steel Production Historic Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
- Zinc: Output Growth Heading Towards Negative Territory
- Table: Australia - Refined Zinc Production & Consumption
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- The Painful Undoing Of Built-Up Imbalances
- Table: Australia - Economic Activity
Commodities Forecast
- Monthly Metals Update
- Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Steel Forecast
- Steel To Average US$360/tonne In 2013: Short-Term View
- Table: Steel Forecast
- Table: Steel Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
- Table: Australia - Largest Listed Metal Producers
Company Profiles
- Alcoa
- Table: Alcoa - Financial Data
- Arrium Limited
- Table: Arrium Limited - Financial Data
- Rio Tinto
- Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
- BlueScope Steel
- Table: BlueScope Steel - Financial Data
Demographic Outlook
- Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Cross Checks

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