2012-05-20 14:05:43 - New Healthcare research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI View: Given the country's increasingly ageing population and the consequential rise in noncommunicable diseases, Australia is a highly attractive place for multinational companies despite lower growth potential compared to emerging markets. However, we caution that the government's funding of the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) may be unsustainable, compounded by a lacklustre economic growth that may pose threats to the pharmaceutical industry if the government were to pursue aggressive price-containment policies.
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: AUD12.85bn (US$13.27bn) in 2011 to AUD13.03bn (US$12.51bn) in 2012; +1.4% in local currency terms and -5.7% in US dollar terms due to exchange rate fluctuations. Forecast upgraded due to general optimism about the generic drugs sector as a result of impending patent expiries.
AUD122.43bn (US$126.38bn) in 2011 to AUD127.57bn (US$122.50bn) in 2012; +4.2% in local currency terms and -3.1% in US dollar terms due to exchange rate fluctuations. Forecast slightly down from Q112 due to the receipt of new historic data from the World Health Organization (WHO).
* Medical devices: AUD5.45bn (US$5.63bn) in 2011 to AUD5.62bn (US$5.40bn) in 2012; +3.1% in local currency terms and -4.1% in US dollar terms due to exchange rate fluctuations.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/384790_australia_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_ ..
Risk/Reward Rating: In BMI's Q312 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), Australia is ranked second in the regional matrix of 18 countries. It was third in Q212 and the rise is mainly due to the decreasing attractiveness of the South Korean pharmaceutical market as a result of that government's cost-containment policies. Australia's scores are unchanged in this quarter, with an overall RRR of 66.2, which is significantly higher than the regional average of 52.7. It scored highest in country rewards (87) and risks (77), primarily due to its extensive urbanisation, an increasingly ageing population, a proper legal framework and the lack of widespread corruption.
Key Trends And Developments
* In April 2011, the government implemented an average price cut of 23% on 1,000 generic drugs as part of its price disclosure regulation. This round of price cuts is expected to save the government AUD1.9bn (US$1.9bn) over the next four years.
* In February 2012, the government's proposal for a means test on the private health insurance (PHI) rebate as approved by parliament. The changes will help the government save AUD746.3mn (US$801.4mn) in FY2012/13, helping it to achieve its AUD$1.5bn (US$1.6bn) budget surplus goal.
BMI Economic View: Australia's GDP grew at a weak 2.0% in 2011, in line with our expectations. With Q411's figures particularly poor, we believe the Australian economy will enter recession in 2012 and we maintain our full-year growth forecast at 0.8%, compare to a consensus of 3.4%. While a recession will be painful, it could provide Australia with the opportunityto rebalance its economy and build up new engines of growth.
BMI Political View: The Australian Labour Party lost another state following an election in Queensland in March 2012. In many ways its failure reflects the problems faced by the party at the federal level. In particular, the high debt levels that convinced the Labour state government to sell assets against popular sentiment started to impinge on its ability to deliver its policies. We believe the difficulties the Labour government faces have increased the risk of large reductions in planned expenditure on infrastructure and education, and we expect its ability to implement policies at state level to deteriorate, weighing on its national re-election chances.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Australia Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
- Australia Political SWOT
- Australia Economic SWOT
- Australia Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312
Australia - Market Summary
- Table: Summary Of TGA Reforms
- OTC Switching Climate
- Regional Regulatory Harmonisation
- Regulatory Developments
- Intellectual Property Issues
- Trade Agreements
- Pricing And Reimbursement
- Table: Historical PBS Co-Payments
- Price Cuts
- Pricing And Reimbursement Developments
- Table: New PBS Formularies
Industry Trends And Developments
- Table: Main Causes Of Death In Australia, 2010
- Communicable Diseases
- Table: Percentage Of Children Immunised (December 31 2011)
- Mental Health Issues
- Prescribing Patterns
- Biotechnology And Research
- Developments In The Biotechnology Sector
- Clinical Trials
- Recent Developments in the Clinical Trials Industry
- Medical Device Market
- Table: Medical Device Classifications
- Table: Key Reforms In Medical Device Regulation, 2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Overall Market Forecast
- Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2008-2016
- Key Growth Factors - Industry
- Table: Overall Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016
- Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016
- Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016
- Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
- Table: Australia Economic Activity, 2011-2016
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Prescription Drug Sales, 2008-2016
- Table: Patented Drug Sales, 2008-2016
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Generic Drug Sales, 2008-2016
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2008-2016
- Medical Device Market Forecast
- Table: Medical Device Sales, 2008-2016
- Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
- Table: Pharmaceutical Trade, 2008-2016
- Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Pharmaceutical Industry
- Company Developments
- Pharmaceutical Distribution
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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