2013-10-07 19:04:24 - New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "BMI India Retail Report Q4 2013"
The Indian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on India's economic outlook of fiscal and trade deficits that remain near historic highs.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Indian retail market while minimising investment risk, and explores the impact of depressed EU demand on the Indian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Indian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Indian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by
45% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 43%. India comes second (out of seven) in BMI's Asia Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it underperforms for risk.
Full Report Details at
Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms. Sales are forecast to increase by 84.6% between 2013 and 2017, from US$33.14bn to US$61.19bn, as India's emerging middle class continues to drive demand for new goods and services and rural retailing presents expansion opportunities. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the removal of foreign direct investment (FDI) restrictions in multi-brand retail announced in September 2012.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts:
* From our perspective, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Indian economy is entering the early stages of a cyclical growth bounce on the back of the ongoing easing by the central bank and a slowly improving external demand picture (among other factors). Recent economic data continue to provide scope for cautious optimism with regard to the economy's near-term prospects. Having said that, the massive amount of uncertainty fomented by the country's dogged structural twin deficits suggests to us that any cyclical bounce is likely to be capped. As such, we have downgraded our FY2013/14 and FY2014/15 real GDP growth forecasts to 5.5% and 6.0%, from 6.2% and 6.7% respectively. � Real private consumption growth is projected to improve to 4.5% in FY2013/14 from an estimated 4.0% last fiscal year, contributing 2.8 percentage points to headline real GDP growth. Private consumption remains the largest component of India's national accounts, equivalent to approximately 60.0% of GDP.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- BMI Industry View
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: India Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2017
- Table: Retail Sector Breakdown By Key Segment, 2013f
- Economic Analysis
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- India Risk/Reward Ratings
- Limits Of Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
- Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
- Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
- Asia Pacific Overview
- Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
- Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (%)
- Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
- Key Growth Drivers
- Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2010-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
- Market Overview
- Table: Structure Of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2005-2011
- Table: Structure Of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales By Format (US$mn), 2005-2011
- Table: Structure Of India's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales By Format (INRmn), 2005-2011
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Industry Forecast
- Table: MGR Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
- Table: Average Outlet Sales By Format - 2011
- Market Overview
- Table: Computer Sales, 2010-2017
- Table: AV Sales, 2010-2017
- Mobile Handsets
- Table: Mobile Handsets Sales, 2010-2017
- Industry Forecast
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2010-2017
- Passenger Vehicles
- Table: India Autos Sector - Passenger Vehicles, 2010-2017
- Company Developments
- Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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