2013-03-11 12:26:30 - Fast Market Research recommends "Canada Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI View: Innovative drugmakers have experienced increasing government cost containment pressure and generic competition in Canada. Local authority has also switched to more direct incentive to encourage R&D investment from pharmaceutical industry. We expect the country's relatively high generic drug price will fall further which will ultimately benefit consumers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: CAD25.6bn (US$25.6bn) in 2012 to CAD25.8bn (US$25.5bn) in 2013; -0.4% growth in local currency terms and 0.5% growth in US dollar terms. Forecast downward from Q113 on account of lower than expected new industry data.
* Healthcare: CAD196.9bn (US$197.0bn) in 2012 to CAD203.9bn (US$206.0bn) in 2013; +3.6% growth in local currency terms and +4.6% growth in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly up from Q113 due to new
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Risk/Reward Rating: In BMI's RRRs for Q213, Canada remains in second place in the expanded regional matrix, trailing behind the US. This is also the case for all other countries in BMI's proprietary system that ranks pharmaceutical markets according to attractiveness to multinational drugmakers. A minor reweighting of one of the RRR components is being implemented to improve the tool, and the adjusted scores for all markets will be published in the Q313 updates of the Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare reports.
Key Trends And Developments
* In January 2013, Canada's provinces made a coordinated effort to lower prices on six of the most widely prescribed generic drugs. The government's aim to reduce high spending on generic drugs for health programs in the country, both public and private. From April 2013, pharmacies will be requested to price generics at no more than 18% of the price of the brand-name equivalent. The six drugs account for 20% of public spending on generic drugs in Canada, and comprises: atorvastatin, the generic version of Pfizer's cholesterol-lowering Lipitor; ramipril, a generic version of Altace, Sanofi's blood pressure medicine; venlafaxine, the generic version of antidepressant Effexor from Pfizer; amlodipine, a cardiac drug developed by Pfizer; and omeprazole and rabeprazole, both used to treat ulcers and acid reflux, originally developed by AstraZeneca and Eisairespectively.
* In December 2012, Quebec abolished its rule, introduced in 1994, authorising the reimbursement of lower-cost generic drugs in the province's public prescription drug insurance plan only after the originator drug has been on the market for 15 years. The announcement was part of Quebec's 2013 budget, which also includes a new incentive for the biopharmaceutical sector: the government will increase refundable tax credit for research and development (R&D) salaries from 17.5% to 27.5% on all spending incurred from November 21 2012 to January 1 2018.
* In November 2012, Pfizer decided to slash the price of its standard pack of four 100mg pills ofViagra, an erectile dysfunction drug, from CAD49 (US$49) to CAD37 (US$37) in Canada. This follows the Supreme Court's decision to annul the drug's patent on November 8 2012.
BMI Economic View: With household consumption remaining subdued and the residential construction sector due for a correction, we continue to forecast overall economic weakness in the coming quarters. Our real GDP growth estimates remain 2.0% for 2012 and 1.9% for 2013, with a rebound to 2.5% in 2014.
BMI Political View: Foreign state-owned companies' investment in Canada's booming resource extraction sectors is in the spotlight, with the federal government reluctantly approving two major takeovers in December 2012 and introducing strict new guidelines for future acquisitions.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
- Table: Canada Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Healthcare Market Forecast
- Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: Canada - Gdp By Expenditure, Real Growth %
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
- Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
- Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (CADmn)
- Other Healthcare Data
- Table: Health Expenditure by Sector & Type, 2009 (CADmn)
- Table: Pharmacists by Type and Province & Territory, 2011
- Table: Active Physicians, 2005-2009
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Table: Americas Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q213
Industry Trends And Developments
- Non-Communicable Diseases
- Healthcare Sector
- Table: Sustainability Of Public Health Expenditure And Pharmaceutical Approval Indicators
- Research & Development
- Personalised Medicine
- Intellectual Property Regime
- Pricing Regime
- Reimbursement Regime
- Recent Developments
- Pharmaceutical Industry
- Table: Top 20 Pharmaceutical Companies According To Market Capitalisation On The Canadian Stock Exchange
- Pharmaceutical Reimport Policy
- Recent Pharmaceutical Company Developments
- Pharmaceutical Retail
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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