2013-03-02 15:27:10 - New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Canada Shipping Report Q2 2013"
For the moment BMI maintains its broadly optimistic outlook for the Canadian port sector, but we remain concerned about import and export volumes. A slowdown in private consumption should lead to weaker import growth in 2013. Meanwhile, a renewed US recession would severely negatively impact Canadian exports and we could easily see the contribution from net exports turn negative in the next year or two.
We have downgraded our Canadian GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 2.1% from 2.3%. While most of our individual forecasts of GDP by expenditure category remain the same, we have downgraded our real export growth projection to 5.0% from 5.7%, due to the fact that the strong Canadian dollar is hurting the export sector, while the
external climate (with weakness in the crucial US export market) is beginning to hurt foreign trade. This accounts almost entirely for the decline in our overall GDP projection.
Full Report Details at
Headline Industry Data
* 2013 Port of Vancouver tonnage throughput forecast to grow 2.5%. Over the medium term we project average annual growth of 14% to reach 143.4mn tonnes in 2017.
* 2013 Port of Vancouver container throughput forecast to grow 6.7%. Over the medium term we project a 33.9% increase, to reach 3.6mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2017.
Key Industry Trends
Port of Halifax Tripled Throughput After Hurricane Sandy
The Canadian port of Halifax has tripled its throughput thanks to cargo diverted from US ports in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey closed the port for a period due to power outages and destruction from the storm.
Bright Future For Prince Rupert As It Pilots Screening Of US Cargo
The port of Prince Rupert is working towards an official badge of security approval as US authorities are continuing to push screening of inbound maritime cargo across the national border to the Pacific coast of Canada.
Halifax and Panama Canal Authority sign MoU
The port of Halifax became the first Canadian port to sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Panama Canal Authority. The port signed the MoU in order to identify business opportunities, increase awareness of the port, exchange information, and undertake joint marketing initiatives.
Risks To Outlook
The biggest risk by far is the potential for a eurozone breakup, which would threaten the Canadian economy across the board, from business confidence, to trade, to financial markets.
The triggering of the US 'fiscal cliff' in early 2013 would lead Canada's biggest trading partner into a major recession, and would likely drag the Canadian economy down with it.
A major slowdown in China would negatively impact commodity prices, hurting Canadian port volumes.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Port of Metro Vancouver Throughput Q2 2013
- Port of Montreal Throughput
- Table: Major Port Data, 2010-2017
- Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010 -2017
- Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
- Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn)
- Canada Container Shipping Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Global Industry Overview - Container Shipping
- Demand: Global Box Outlook Brightening
- Supply: Overcapacity To Remain As More Megas Saturate The Market
- Table: Container Line Mega-Vessel Newbuild Plans
- Rates: A Strong Start, But Rate Management Must Continue
- Table: 2012 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Table: 2012 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
Global Industry Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
- Demand: Stimulus Blip Playing Out, Bit For How Long?
- Supply: Dry Bulk Fleet growth Slipping, But Overcapacity Still A Problem
- Table: China Iron Ore Trade Partners Overview
- Table: China Coal Trade Partners Overview
Global Industry Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
- Improving Fundamentals In Dirty Tanker Market
- Tonne-Mile Growth To Support Product Tanker Sector
- LNG Boom To Stall In 2013
Global Company Strategy
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company
- CMA CGM
- Evergreen Line
- COSCO Container Lines Company
- Hanjin Shipping
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- Mitsui OSK Lines
- Macroeconomic Forecasts
- GDP By Expenditure
- Table: Canada - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
- Table: CANADA Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
- Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Canada's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Canada's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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