2012-11-18 04:21:55 - Fast Market Research recommends "Colombia Defence & Security Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

Colombia's government continues to wage its campaign against insurgent organisations and criminal gangs involved in narcotics production and trafficking. The employment of the country's armed forces against these threats has yielded some successes, although it appears that the government is still a long way from defeating Marxist-inspired guerrilla groups such as Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC). This organisation has used a combination of attacks on Colombia's law enforcement organisations and the civilian population, along with kidnappings, extortion and drug trafficking to raise revenue.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/499745_colombia_defence_security_report_q1_2 ..


Throughout the fourth quarter of 2012, the Colombian armed forces have enjoyed some significant successes against FARC, hitting a training camp, although the group has continued to be able to perform

attacks against the security forces. One potentially promising announcement from FARC concerns the group's decision to abandon kidnapping and to release law enforcement hostages that it may be holding. This prompted a supportive, albeit very cautious, reaction from the government.

Whether FARC and the government will soon embark on peace talks remains to be seen. The guerrilla organisation has at times hinted that it would be prepared to return to the negotiating table during 2011, and during the first quarter of 2012. However, the government has outlined a series of preconditions that it insists the FARC must accept before it will enter negotiations. Moreover, there are concerns that FARC's tactics may simply be a ruse to push the government into negotiations, and to suspend military operations while the group reconstitutes itself in the wake of increasingly successful attacks against the organisation by the Colombian law enforcement organisations.

FARC's attacks are also having a negative effect on Colombia's critical national infrastructure. Armed actions against oil installations risk having a detrimental effect on crude oil production. This could derail the government's goal of increasing production to over 1.5mn barrels a day by 2015. In addition, FARC has attacked power stations, disrupting life in some of Colombia's conurbations. Economic activity has been recently disrupted by one of Colombia's criminal gangs, which ordered a general strike in one of Colombia's northern cities in retaliation for the death of its leader during a gunfight with police.

Government efforts to destroy the FARC are yielding small successes, although it seems unlikely that the guerrilla group will be destroyed in the short term, if it is ever destroyed at all. This situation is much the same for the narcotic criminal gangs, which operate throughout much of the country, and which may also be connected to several of Colombia's guerrilla organisations. In some ways, cocaine production is even harder to combat than FARC as a high global demand for the drug continues unabated throughout much of the West and the wider world.

During the last quarter, BMI has made the following updates to the Colombia Defence & Security Report for Q1 2013:

* A description of the country's defence decision-making process, its grand strategy and the orders of battle of its armed forces.
* An outline of current and anticipated future procurement projects being pursued by its army, air force and navy.
* Details regarding defence procurements performed in Q412 and Q312.
* Updated information regarding Colombia's 2012 defence budget.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Colombia Security SWOT
- Colombia Defence Industry SWOT
- Colombia Political SWOT
- Colombia Economic SWOT
- Colombia Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Latin America Security Overview
- The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
Security Risk Analysis
- BMI's Regional Security Ratings
- Table: Latin America Security Ratings
- Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings
- Colombia's Security Risk Ratings
Political Overview
- Domestic Politics
- A Decade Of Security Improvements To Continue
- Table: Political Overview
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Many Structural Challenges Ahead
Colombia Security Overview
- Internal Security Situation
- External Security Situation
Armed Forces & Government Spending
Market Overview
- Arms Trade Overview
- Procurement Trends & Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Armed Forces
- Table: Colombia's Armed Forces, 2000-2009 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Colombia's Available Manpower For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
- Defence Expenditure
- Table: Colombia's Government Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017
- Table: Colombia's Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
- Defence Trade
- Table: Colombia's Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
- Table: Colombia's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
- Table: Colombia's Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- A Moderating But Strong Consumer
- Table: Colombia - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth % 2009-2016
Company Profile
- Industria Militar (Indumil)
Demographic Outlook
- Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Colombia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Colombia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Defence Industry
- Sources

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