2013-02-02 16:00:24 - Fast Market Research recommends "Croatia Oil & Gas Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available

BMI View: The Croatian authorities have attempted to kick-start the development of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry in the country by outlining plans for a EUR600mn import terminal on the Adriatic coast. While this could end years of uncertainty over LNG plans, there remain serious doubts over the viability and timing of the scheme. Croatia's limited domestic upstream prospects leave it increasingly exposed to oil and gas imports, although national company INA has reported discoveries that could slow the decline in production.

The main trends and developments for Croatia's Oil and Gas sector are:


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* Gas from the Adriatic and onshore fields should deliver useful domestic volumes over the next few years. We believe

output will peak at around 3.0bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2013/14. Consumption is forecast to rise from an estimated 3.2bcm in 2012 to 4.3bcm by 2017, then to 5.1bcm by 2021, requiring end-period annual net imports of up to 3.1bcm - possibly met by LNG imports.
* Russian companies Zarubezhneft and Gazprom Neft are believed to have reached the second stage of bidding to buy fuels retail outlets in Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina from Austria's OMV group. Zarubezhneft had earlier in 2012 revealed plans to invest more than EUR1bn in Croatia's oil infrastructure. Gazprom Neft has also talked openly about plans for fuels retailing in the country. The 63 Croatian service stations for sale by OMV represent a 13% market share.
* The government of Croatia is planning to construct its own LNG terminal in the northern Adriatic, reports Reuters, citing a statement by Deputy Prime Minister Radimir Cacic on June 3 2012. The terminal, which is likely to cost EUR600mn (US$755mn), is expected to become operational in 2016. Of the total investment, 25% is expected to come from EU development funds, Cacic said. The LNG Hrvatska consortium has been created to build the terminal, which will have an initial capacity of 5bcm of gas per year.
* In spite of some recent exploration success by Industrija nafte (INA), which should slow the decline in domestic oil production over the medium term, there is little immediate prospect of major oil accumulations being found and developed. Crude and liquids production will in 2012 be an estimated 21,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012, which will peak at 22,000b/d in 2013/14 then slip to no more than 21,000b/d by 2017. Consumption of oil is set to rise more slowly than underlying economic growth - less than 2% per annum over the forecast period and reaching an estimated 103,300b/d by 2017. Imports are therefore set to rise to 82,300b/d by 2017.
* The government may sell an additional 19% stake in INA to Hungary's MOL, according to local press reports in late October 2012. MOL currently owns 49.1%, while the Croatian government has a 44.84% stake in the Croatian national energy group.
* The estimated cost of crude oil imports during 2012 will have been US$2.84bn, reflecting an assumed OPEC basket oil price of US$107.10 per barrel (bbl). By 2016, the oil import bill is put at US$2.74bn. Croatia is also importing higher volumes of gas, and the combined cost of both fuels is forecast to be US$3.42bn by 2016.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Croatia Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Table: Croatia Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Croatia Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data - Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Croatia Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Croatia Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Croatia Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Croatia Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021
- LNG
- Refining and Oil Products Trade
- Table: Croatia Refining - Production and Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016
- Table: Croatia Refining - Production and Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts 2015-2021
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Country Risk/Reward Ratings
- Croatia Upstream Rating - Overview
- Croatia Upstream Rating - Rewards
- Croatia Upstream Rating - Risks
- Croatia Downstream Rating - Overview
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
- Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Croatia Energy Market Overview
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing and Regulation
- Government Policy
- International Energy Relations
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Croatia
- Oil Pipelines
- LNG Terminals
- Gas Storage Facilities
- Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players In Croatian Energy Sector
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profiles
- Industrija Nafte (INA)
- Jadranski Naftovod (Janaf)
- Eni
- MOL - Summary
- Plinacro - Summary
- OMV - Summary
- Others - Summary
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Global Energy Market Outlook
- Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
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