2013-12-05 17:00:52 - New Healthcare research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
The imposition of across-the-board price cuts in late 2013 and into 2014 will weigh heavily on the pharmaceutical market. We forecast weak pharmaceutical market growth over the next decade, as we believe Croatia will observe strict budgetary vigilance under pressure from the EU Commission. However, in exchange for a stagnant market, we believe that the EU pressure will also stabilise the supply chain and force liquidity into the market. Healthcare spending is projected to rise over the next 10 years in line with a rapidly ageing population, although there is a significant risk that the state will apply restrictions to blunt its growth.
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: HRK7.50bn (US$1.28bn) in 2012 to HRK6.95bn (US$1.19bn) in 2013; -7.3% in local currency
and -7.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast changed from Q313, due to announced price cuts by the Health Ministry.
* Healthcare: HRK25.71bn (US$4.40bn) in 2012 to HRK27.78bn (US$4.75bn) in 2013; 8.1% in local currency and 8.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised slightly upward from Q413.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/723461_croatia_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_re ..
Croatia's Risk/Reward Rating is unchanged from Q413. Despite the country's accession to the EU, market dynamics remain subdued, with moderate growth over the long term. Croatia scores 45.8 out of 100 in our Risk/Reward Ratings, making it the 18th most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe.
Key Trends And Developments:
* In July 2013 Croatian healthcare workers lost their collective bargaining rights, paving the way for potential cuts to the number of doctors and health workers, or across-the-board wage cuts for medical staff employed by public hospitals.
* In June 2013 the Croatian government decided to terminate all agreements for services from private hospitals. Previously, the HZZO paid almost HRK500mn (US$87mn) to private providers for services provided, but these will now migrate over to public polyclinics, which are expected to come under stress from an influx of new patients.
* In March 2013 Health minister, Rajko Ostojic, announced an across-the-board price cut of 15-20% for medicines on the Croatian positive reimbursement list. The minister also announced unified public procurement would enable cost savings of HRK600mn (US$103mn). The HZZO announced its 2013 budget for prescription drugs would be reduced from HRK3.1bn (US$530mn) to HRK2.8bn (US $480mn), combined with price controls introduced on expensive medicines in November 2012. The burden of these price cuts will fall on reimbursed drugs, which are primarily generics. The price cuts appear to disproportionately impact local drugmakers, whose branded generics are not as cheap as imports.
BMI Economic View: A modest recovery in private consumption will be insufficient to drive a significant economic recovery in Croatia in 2014, with fiscal consolidation and weak investment spending set to weigh on headline growth. Although the recovering tourism sector will continue to support the economy, we have pencilled in below-consensus real GDP growth of -0.4% in 2013 and 0.6% in 2014.
BMI Political View: Croatia's recent dispute with the EU over implementing an arrest warrant will expose the country to closer EU scrutiny over the next few quarters, although membership of the bloc should continue supporting investor sentiment in the country going forward. Furthermore, an ongoing trade disagreement with the Central Europe Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) bloc is likely to drag on, creating uncertainty and weighing on Croatia's business environment.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
- Table: Croatia Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017
- Table: Reimbursed Drug Expenditure By HZZO (HRK) - Equivalent To Final Consumer Prices, 2008-2012
- Healthcare Market Forecast
- Table: Croatia Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Croatia Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Croatia Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Croatia Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017
- Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Croatia Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2018
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Croatia Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2018
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: Croatia Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017
- Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
- Table: Croatia Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts, US$
- Table: Croatia Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts, HRK
- Other Healthcare Data
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Table: Croatia - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Croatia Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Trends And Developments
- Healthcare Provision
- Healthcare Expenditure
- Table: Reimbursed Drug Expenditure By HZZO - Equivalent to Final Consumer Prices, 2008-2012
- Table: State Budget for Healthcare (HRKbn)
- Healthcare Reform
- Clinical Trials
- Regulatory Regime
- Pharmaceutical Advertising
- Intellectual Property Regime
- Pricing Regime
- Reimbursement Regime
- OTC Regulations
- Pharmaceutical Industry
- Table: Top-10 Medicines By Value Sales
- Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry
- Table: Croatian Pharmaceutical Manufacturers
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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