2012-10-26 14:29:59 - New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Czech Republic Autos Report Q4 2012"
Passenger car sales in the Czech Republic increased 5% y-o-y, to 105,391 units, in the first seven months of 2012, according to the Czech Automotive Industry Association. BMI, however, maintains its forecast for 3% growth in the sector in 2012, as a number of factors affecting consumer sentiment and purchasing power lead us to believe that passenger car sales will not be able to maintain the strong rate of growth observed in the first seven months of the year.
BMI believes that a number of macroeconomic factors will cause consumer sentiment to dwindle in the latter part of the year, abating the rise is passenger car sales. Unemployment remains relatively high in the country, at 8.3% as of July 2012. At
the same time, the government's fiscal austerity measures, set to ease next year, continue to weigh on household spending habits. We maintain our forecast for net exports to be the only positive contribution to real GDP growth this year, at 0.9 percentage points (pp), down from the 3.2pp contribution in 2011.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/479413_czech_republic_autos_report_q4_2012.a ..
Passenger car production in the Czech Republic rose 4.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first six months of the year, to some 662,500 units. BMI forecasts 5.4% growth in this segment for 2012, which we maintain. Our 2012 forecast marks a notable slowdown in growth from an 11.4% increase in 2011, and a 10.5% increase in 2010. We have previously cautioned that vehicle and equipment production capacity in Czech Republic could slow down and potentially decrease in the face of an increasingly uncompetitive business environment and ongoing economic malaise in Europe.
Skoda still dominates the domestic market with a 30% share. Success comes at a price, however. In March 2012, Skoda Auto reached an agreement with local labour unions for a 5% increase in wages on average in a deal which will be valid until March 2013. The agreement comes after unions demanded a bigger share of the company's growth story and pressed for the gap in wages between its German and Czech workers to be narrowed.
Such developments have been partly responsible for the growing unattractiveness of the Czech Republic to new investors and could pose a serious risk to growth of autos production in the country. It also makes the Czech Republic more vulnerable to being overtaken by its close rival Poland in BMI's Risk/Reward ratings for the autos industry in Europe.
Report Table of Contents:
- Czech Republic Autos Industry SWOT
- Czech Republic Political SWOT
- Czech Republic Economic SWOT
- Czech Republic Business Environment SWOT
- Europe Still Dominates Autos Outlook
- Table: Passenger Car Sales H112
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
- Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings
- Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe
- Investments In Emerging Europe
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
- Table: Czech Republic - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Czech Autos Production, 2009-2016
- Table: Czech Autos Sales, 2009-2016
- Table: Czech Autos Trade, 2009-2016
- Market Overview
- Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Passenger Cars 2011
- Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - Passenger Cars Jan-Aug
- Passenger Cars
- Commercial Vehicles
- Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - New Light CVs 2011
- Table: Czech Republic Top Key Players - Trucks 2011
- Table: Czech Republic Top Key Players - Buses 2011
- Table: Czech Republic Top 15 Key Players - New Light CVs Jan-Aug
- Table: Czech Republic Top Key Players - Trucks Jan-Aug
- Table: Czech Republic Top Key Players - Buses Jan-Aug
- Alternative Fuel
- Fiat Profits Continue To Tumble
- Skoda Auto
- Table: The Czech Republic's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: The Czech Republic's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: The Czech Republic's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: The Czech Republic's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Automobile Industry
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