2013-03-11 12:26:19 - Fast Market Research recommends "Egypt Freight Transport Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Political uncertainty will continue to affect the Egyptian economy in 2013 as the country continues on its rocky transitional period towards democracy. This uncertainty will, in turn, continue to affect the freight transport sector as a worsening economic position will impact on the country's demand for cargo transportation, either as a result of muted private consumption or a lack of significant infrastructure projects as foreign direct investment dries up. As a result, our forecasts for the Egyptian rail and air freight, and the ports sector are largely sedate, though the transhipment hub of East Port Said - less reliant on domestic demand - is expected to outperform.
Headline Industry Data
* Air freight handled at Cairo International Airport is set to
grow by 3.5% year-on-year in 2013 to reach 307,360 tonnes. Over the medium term to 2017, growth will average 3.5% per annum.
* Rail cargo will enjoy expansion of 1.8% in 2013, with growth projected to average 1.7% over the medium term.
* Total tonnage throughput at East Port Said is forecast to grow by 8.9% to 32.33mn tonnes in 2013, and to average 10.4% per annum to 2017.
* Real growth in total trade is forecast at 6.2% in 2013.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/552296_egypt_freight_transport_report_q2_201 ..
Key Industry Trends
Workers Resume Operations At Ain Al-Sokhna Terminal: Operations at the Ain Al-Sokhna Terminal in the Egyptian Port of Sokhna resumed in November following a strike. Reports claimed that more than 2,700 port workers started a strike on October 12, which had affected the country's economy. The workers were demanding the reinstatement of eight co-workers who were fired for disciplinary reasons.
Suez Canal's Revenue Up 4% In December 2012: Egypt's Suez Canal recorded a 4% month-on-month (m-o-m) increase in revenue to US$424.6mn in December 2012, compared with US$407.7mn in November 2012, reported Reuters, citing the state information portal. The canal's revenue stood at US$443.7mn in December 2011.
Egyptian Shipping Companies Braced For Cost Increases: Shipping companies in Egypt are expecting the cost of both shipping and insuring imports to increase. The prospective increase has been attributed to international credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's decision to downgrade Egypt's credit rating to a Bdown from its prior B rating.
Key Risks To Outlook
Risks to our outlook for Egypt stem from both the domestic and global fronts. Domestically, the transition to democracy remains rocky, and it is hard to predict with any accuracy exactly what may happen yet after nearly two years of rapid political change in the country. Globally, Egypt is particularly exposed to the eurozone crisis, and any unexpected escalation in that sphere could impact upon our forecasts.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Freight Transport
- Business Environment
- Air Freight
- Table: Air Freight - Cairo International Airport And Egypt, 2010-2017
- Rail Freight
- Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017
- Maritime Freight
- Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
- Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
- Table: Egypt's Main Import Partners (US$mn)
- Table: Egypt's Main Export Partners (US$mn)
Industry Trends And Developments
- EgyptAir Cargo
- Egypt Transport & Commercial Services SAE (Egytrans)
- Political Outlook
- Domestic Politics
- Foreign Policy
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Table: Egypt - Political Overview
Global Industry Overview
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
- Refiners: Is The Party Over?
- Jet Fuel: Middle East & Africa Remain Positive As Global Air Traffic Slumps
- Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes
- Gasoline And Diesel: Demand Destruction Takes A Toll
- Naphtha: Asia Stays Afloat While Europe Sinks
- Bunker Fuels: Trans-Pacific Route Rebound Amid High Prices
- Household Consumption Outlook
- Government Consumption Outlook
- Fixed Investment Outlook
- Net Export Outlook
- Table: Egypt- GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
- Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Egypt's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Egypt's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Transport Industry
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