2012-06-30 04:03:56 - Fast Market Research recommends "Egypt Shipping Report Q3 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available
Through 2012 the key factor affecting the wider Egyptian economy, and the ports and shipping sector, is political uncertainty. After the collapse of the Mubarak regime in early 2011 there are still many question marks over the future of the country. BMI believes Egypt is a country which combines strong medium- to long-term growth potential with significant short-term risks. Looking specifically at the ports and shipping sector, increasing militancy by dock workers has been an important issue. The latest facility to be hit by strikes was Sokhna, which had a 10-day strike in Q212.
BMI will continue to monitor developments at the facilities. In the absence of monthly throughput data, our forecasts are being informed by our macroeconomic outlook and any
news stories relating to industrial actions. Most of our forecasts for 2012 have been revised down since last quarter on this basis, though we are still projecting growth, in contrast to 2011 when most Egyptian ports recorded falls in their handling volumes.
Full Report Details at
Headline Industry Data
* 2012 total tonnage throughput at Damietta is forecast to grow by a subdued 0.7% to 26.06mn tonnes, and to average 1.6% per annum to 2016.
* 2012 East Port Said container throughput growth forecast at 6.2% to reach 2.76mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), and to average 11.2% to 2016.
* 2012 Egyptian trade real growth forecast at 4.6%, and to average 10.9% over the medium term.
Key Industry Trends
Potential Investment By Maersk To Take Advantage Of Continued Canal Traffic Growth
BMI believes that Danish shipping conglomerate AP Moller Maersk must have confidence in East-West trade through the Suez Canal if the company's reported plans to invest heavily in developing its transhipment hub at the waterway's mouth come to fruition.
Foiled Terror Attack
BMI notes that there was a foiled terror attack against a vessel traversing the Suez Canal in March 2012. We remain doubtful that this will seriously affect the decision of shipping companies to use the waterway, however, and maintain our view that volumes will hold up in 2012.
Further Egyptian Port Strikes Threaten Throughput Forecasts
Continuing a trend of industrial action that BMI has noted at Middle Eastern ports since the advent of the Arab Spring, the DP World-operated Egyptian facility of Sokhna has once again seen its workforce down tools. This is the second time in six months that workers at the facility have gone on strike, following an earlier action in September 2011, and offers downside risk to BMI's conservative throughput forecast for the facility in 2012. Sokhna is not the only Egyptian port to have seen strikes in recent months: El Dekheila and Alexandria both experienced strikes in September also.
Key Risks to Outlook
The main risks to our forecasts for Egyptian ports are primarily to the downside. Should the country be racked by another wave of political unrest, which remains distinctly possible at this stage, volumes through Egyptian ports could see a contraction like that experienced in most facilities in 2011. Additionally, any further industrial actions by workers could likewise affect throughput; Sokhna was the latest Egyptian facility to be struck by strikes, with a 10-day action in Q212.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Egypt Shipping SWOT
- Egypt Political SWOT
- Egypt Economic SWOT
- Egypt Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview - Container Shipping
- Executive Summary: Rate Decline Risk, Threat Of Another Year Of Losses
- Slowing Demand A Major Threat To Freight Rates
- Carriers Thinking Outside Box On Overcapacity, Can Rate War Be Avoided?
- Lines Must Tackle High Bunker Prices To Avoid Impact On 2012 Bottom Line
- Evergreen's Order Raises Questions For Future Of Box Fleet Expansions
Global Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
- Executive Summary: Rates Struggling To Recover From 25-Year Low
- Bleak Demand Outlook Gives Cause For Concern
- Lines Withhold Payments As Shipping Struggles In Depressed Market
- Vale's Valemax Woes Continue, Vessel Values And Demand Plunging
- Orders Continue As Lines Take Advantage Of Bargain Basement Prices
- Record Dry Bulk Scrapping Levels No Match For Global Fleet
Global Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
- Executive Summary: Bearish View Maintained Despite Industry Optimism
- Will Increased Asian Crude Imports Offset Excess Tonnage?
- More Pain For US Tanker Operators Despite Investor Confidence
- 2012 Political Impact On Crude Oil Shipping Emanating From Iran
- Tanker Operators Scrap In Desperate Attempt To Shore Up Rates
- Tanker Pools To Grow As Operators Seek Safety In Numbers
Industry Trends And Developments
Container Shipping Market Overview
- Port of East Port Said
- Port of El Dekheila
- Table: Major Port Data, 2009-2016
- Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
- Table: Egypt's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
- Table: Egypt's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
- Evergreen Line
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container)
Country Snapshot: Egypt Demographic Data
- Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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