2013-09-22 08:57:34 - New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Egypt Shipping Report Q4 2013"
Political uncertainty will continue to affect the Egyptian economy in 2013 as the country continues upon its rocky transitional period towards democracy. This hit another hurdle in July as popular street protests, with the help of the army, led to the ouster of democratically elected President Morsi and the installation of an interim government. While the markets have responded favourably initially, we believe that gains were overdone and that there will be a pullback as the ongoing problems in Egypt are realised. This uncertainty will, in turn, continue to affect the shipping sector as a worsening economic position (we have revised down our growth outlook from 3.5% to 1.9%) will impact on the country's imports through the ports In light
of this, a Qatari plan to invest in a new industrial and ports complex near the Suez Canal will come as a relief to the sector. The presence of the waterway in Egyptian territory provides an important source of income in fees and associated businesses to the Egyptian economy; those ports expected to see strongest growth in 2013 are those located near to the canal, such as East Port Said.
Full Report Details at
Headline Industry Data
* 2013 total tonnage throughput at El Dekheila is forecast to grow by 3.4% to 25.22mn tonnes, and to average 3.8% per annum to 2017.
* 2013 East Port Said container throughput growth forecast at 8.6% to reach 3.69mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), and to average 9.1% to 2017.
* 2013 Egyptian trade forecast to grow by 0.4%, and to average growth of 5.6% over the medium term.
Key Industry Trends
Suez Canal Revenues Increase In May 2013: Revenues generated from the Suez Canal grew by 1% yearon- year (y-o-y) in May 2013. Revenues hit US$438.1mn, with the increase attributed to an increase in total tonnage volumes and compounded by an increase in toll costs. Containership tonnage throughput grew by 33% y-o-y, while oil tanker volumes increased by 22.5% y-o-y.
Workers' Protest Halts Unloading Of LPG Vessel: The unloading of a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) vessel at the Egyptian port of Suez ceased on June 25 due to the ongoing protest of workers. The protest has lasted for five days and has threatened LPG stocks during the month of Ramadan.
RSPA To Offer Safaga Port To Private Sector: The Egyptian Red Sea Ports Authority (RSPA) in July revealed plans to offer the Safaga Port to the private sector in July 2013 via the ministry of finance's publicprivate partnership unit. The project worth EGP6bn (US$858mn) would be offered to the private sector after the completion of a draft preliminary study, which is being compiled by German consultants Hamburg Ports.
Key Risks to Outlook
The main risks to our forecasts for Egyptian ports are primarily to the downside. Should the country be wracked by another wave of political unrest, which remains distinctly possible at this stage, volumes through Egyptian ports could see a contraction like that experienced in most facilities in 2011. Additionally, any further industrial actions by workers could likewise affect throughput; Sokhna was the latest Egyptian facility to be struck by strikes in February 2013.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- East Port Said Throughput
- Port Of El Dekheila Throughput
- Table: Major Port Data, 2010-2017
- Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
- Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn)
- Egypt Container Shipping Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Shipping - Global Industry View
- Box Supply: Overcapacity Remains, But ETRs Offer Hope
- Table: Q213 Container Vessel Deliveries
- Table: Container Line Mega Vessel Newbuild Plans
- Table: Q213 New Container Ship Orders
- Box Rates: Tough 2013, ETRs Remain The Ones To Watch
- Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
- Box Demand: Static Outlook Continues, But 2014 Looks Brighter
Global Company Strategy
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company
- CMA CGM
- Evergreen Line
- COSCO Container Lines Company
- Economic Analysis
- Breakdown By Expenditure
- Table: Egypt - GDP By Expenditure, US$ Terms Breakdown
- Looking Beyond 2013
- Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Egypt's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Egypt's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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