2012-10-24 16:21:51 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Germany Telecommunications Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI View: Germany's mature mobile market is showing the first signs of saturation and our forecasts see limited growth in subscriber numbers. However, more positively for operators will be the opportunities offered by new smartphones and data services that are key to revenue growth. Data already makes up over two-thirds of non-voice revenue and income from voice services keeps falling. Broadband access remains an important driver and the roll-out of LTE maintains Germany's reputation for forward-looking telecoms operators. Consolidation in the cable market will provide robust competition for broadband services across different technologies.
* Minor adjustment to mobile subscriber forecasts as recovery in Q212 was stronger than anticipated. Overall decline for 2012 still expected and penetration to hover around
140% over our five-year forecast period.
* Smartphones are accounting for around two-thirds of operator handset sales each quarter, offering greater data revenues, but adding to costs to subsidise these devices.
* Small increases in ARPU do not suggest any real change in market dynamics. BMI continues to forecast market average ARPU falling over our five-year forecast.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/479418_germany_telecommunications_report_q4_ ..
Key Trends And Developments
The future of third-ranked mobile operator E-Plus was resolved after parent copany KPN decided not to sell the unit. Mexico's America Movil acquired its desired 27% stake in KPN without losing E-Plus. Greater certainty over its future will certainly benefit E-Plus as it maintains a competitive stance in the mobile market, steadily gaining market share from the top two operators. Nevertheless, we believe the operator's low-cost strategy has its risks in the market as greater emphasis is placed on postpaid subscriptions and data services. There remains demand for low-cost services in the market, but catering to higher end subscribers will be important for boosting revenue.
Alternative fixed-line providers continue to provide strong competition for incumbent Deutsche Telekom. Kabel Deutschland agreed to acquire Tele Columbus in May 2012, and regional operator PrimaCom has attracted bids from Deutsche Telekom and Unitymedia. BMI believes that consolidation, particularly for smaller regional operators, is important to ensure competition remains robust. As subscribers continue to demand more data and faster speeds, building new infrastructure will remain expensive so economies of scale are key to maintaining the market's development.
Germany holds fourth place in our Risk/Reward Ratings, although ARPU continues to decline and subscriber growth is negligible. However, Germany's economy has withstood the shocks seen across the eurozone and is a core component of regional growth. That said, we see any expansion of the eurozone crisis as a downside risk to Germany and Western European markets.
Partial Table of Contents:
- Mobile SWOT Analysis
- Wireline SWOT Analysis
- Business Environment
Industry Business Environment Overview
- Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings - Q4 2012
- Change At Both Ends Of The Ratings
- Table: Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Industry Trends - Monthly Blended Mobile ARPU (EUR)
- Fixed Line
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Regional Perspective
- Table: Germany Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2011
- Key Developments
- Market Growth
- Table: Germany Mobile Market Growth ('000)
- Market Shares
- Table: Germany Mobile Market Shares, Q212
- Mobile Content
- Table: Percentage Of Revenues From Non-Voice Services (%)
- Mobile Operator Tables
- Table: Mobile Market Overview
- Table: T-Mobile
- Table: Vodafone
- Table: E-Plus
- Table: O2
- Europe - Western Europe Mobile Content
- Succeeding In A Sea Of Content
- All Eyes On Data
- Making Machines Pay
- Fixed Line
- Table: Fixed-Line Subscriptions By Operator ('000), Q111 And Q112
- Table: Wireline Developments
- Converged Service Operator Data
- Table: Deutsche Telekom
- Table: Kabel Deutschland
- Table: UPC Unitymedia
- Table: Telefonica (HanseNet)
Industry Trends And Developments
- Key Developments
- Table: Selected Trends And Developments
- Table: Germany Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
- Regulatory Developments
- Table: Key Players - Germany Telecoms Sector
- Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2007-2011 (US$mn)
- Deutsche Telekom
- T-Mobile International
- Vodafone Germany
- Telefonica O2 Germany
- Under Pressure
- Section 1: Population
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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