2013-02-01 18:11:13 - Fast Market Research recommends "Hong Kong Freight Transport Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Hong Kong's freight transport sector's outlook is looking brighter in 2013, with the country set to benefit from recovery in the major demand markets of the US and Europe, which the country caters for in its role as a maritime and aviation hub.
US demand is set to continue on its recovery course, while eurozone countries are forecast to emerge from their double dip recession in 2013. This will have a positive effect on throughput at Hong Kong's port, which caters as a container shipping hub for Asia, and also the country's air freight volumes, with Hong Kong boasting the busiest cargo airport globally. We forecast container throughput to increase by 1.9% in 2013 up from an estimated y-o-y decline of
4% in 2012. Hong Kong's Air freight volumes are forecast to increase by 2.3% in 2013 after a projected growth of just 0.6% in 2012.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/529351_hong_kong_freight_transport_report_q1 ..
Domestic freight volumes are estimated to have been negatively hit in 2012, with the country's road freight forecast to decline by 4% on the back of a slowdown in macroeconomic growth, with BMI estimating Hong Kong's real GDP in 2012 to slow to 1.8% from 5% in 2011. In 2013 the country's economic growth is forecast to expand y-o-y by 2.5%, which will boost demand for domestic freight. We therefore project Hong Kong's road freight to grow by 2.9% in 2013.
* 2013 Air freight tonnage is expected to increase by 2.3%.
* 2013 Port of Hong Kong throughput is forecast to grow by 1.2%.
* 2013 Road freight is forecast to grow by 2.9%.
* 2013 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 2.7%.
* 2013 Total real trade growth is forecast to grow 3.85%.
Key Industry Trends
Bellwethers Looking More Positive
Hong Kong's air freight bellwethers are starting to show a more positive outlook. Hong Kong airport is a major transshipment hub in the Asian air freight sector and as such, is a gauge of much wider demand. It recorded a 1% increase in cargo volumes in October 2012, as the facility handled 346,000 tonnes. While this growth marked a month on month (m-o-m) slowing from September, when air freight volumes spiked y-o-y with a growth of 7%, we highlight that September is traditionally a stronger demand month and this year volumes were further bolstered by the launch of the iPhone 5, which was dependent upon air freight for the logistics of the launch.
Foreign Operators Keep Expanding
Hong Kong's role in the global logistics supply chain continues to expand. The country is a major transshipment hub, both for maritime and air freight and so attracts great interest from logistics operators. It also offers a gateway for foreign logistics operators into China.
Different strategies are being utilised by logistics firms to expand their presence in Hong Kong. Agility for example has chosen to expand organically opening a new 13,000sqm warehouse in Hong Kong in October. The facility will cater for Hong Kong and South China logistics needs and is located in Hong Kong's Yuen Long District, near the border with mainland China. The warehouse has direct highway access to the Kwai Chung container terminals at the port of Hong Kong and the Hong Kong International Airport. The facility has been developed to handle electronics and goods which require a temperature controlled environment.
Port Launches Green Initiative
The port of Hong Kong launched its emissions reduction programme at the end of September. The initiative to reduce emissions and persuade ocean carriers to use cleaner fuel while in berth at the port has been developed to tackle health problems related to emissions.
Risks to Outlook
The risk to Hong Kong's freight transport growth remains the projected slowing in China's economic growth. Hong Kong's role as an Asian maritime and aviation hub is tied to China's continued development. A slowing in China's economic growth will therefore lead to a slower growth outlook for freight volumes through Hong Kong's transshipment hubs.
With Hong Kong's freight sector and China's growth so intertwined, the sector will be one of the first in line to be hit should China's slowing growth develop into a hard lining, the threat of which is currently being tracked by BMI's Country Risk team.
Other downside risks exist for Hong Kong's role in the global freight sector, specifically to its transshipment role, as China becomes less reliant on Hong Kong's port and airport for its transshipment, as China's manufacturers move away from the coast into the interior and so away from the Pearl River Delta, the region Hong Kong has traditionally catered for. As China's ports and airports are becoming better connected, demand levels are such that shippers are now able to offer freight options directly to Chinese mainland ports and airports rather than transshipping via Hong Kong.
While we expect this trend to continue, we highlight that Hong Kong is fighting to retain its role as a transshipment hub for the aviation and maritime sectors. Investment and expansion is being ploughed into the nation's air freight and port sectors, with a new air cargo centre due to be opened at Hong Kong International Airport in 2013 and the old runway at the Kai Tak Airport set to resurrect its role in Hong Kong's freight transport sector, by being developed into a barge dock
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