2012-09-08 09:18:17 - New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

BMI View: Our outlook for the grains and livestock has turned slightly bullish despite the problems caused by drought conditions in Europe. Our core scenario envisages a rebound in production of key grains (such as wheat, corn and barley), dairy products and poultry during 2012/13, mostly helped by favourable base effects. However, we warn of difficult times ahead for dairy and livestock farmers, whose margins are being squeezed by rising costs and as bleak economic prospects discourage consumption of value-added or more costly products such as cheese and beef.

Key Forecasts

* Wheat production growth to 2015/16: 8.5% to 7.4mn tonnes. Production is expected to rise as prices stay elevated, driven by growing demand for food and biofuels. Production of cellulosic

ethanol, of which Italy is soon set to become a world leader, also will very likely help to boost wheat production.
* Cheese consumption growth to 2015/16: 17.8% to 1.7mn tonnes. Italian per capita cheese consumption, at 28.1kg, is on a par with France and Germany and higher than northern European countries such as Sweden and the UK.
* Poultry production growth to 2015/16: 17.8% to 1.4mn tonnes. Poultry is a relatively cheap meat and as such we expect continued strong demand amid the tough economic climate.
* 2012 real GDP growth: -1.6% (down from 0.5% in 2011)
* 2012 consumer price index: 1.7% ave (up from 2.9% in 2011)
* BMI universe agribusiness market value: 0.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline to US$17.7bn in 2011/12, forecast to grow on average 0.8% annually between 2012/13 and 2015/16.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/456345_italy_agribusiness_report_q4_2012.asp ..


Industry Developments

The farm industry organisation Confagricoltura estimates that Italian farmers are set to face nearly EUR1bn in crop losses due to a heat wave and lack of rain. Although estimates for the exact loss are unavailable, Confagricoltura said that between 30% and 100% of the corn planted in non-irrigated fields is likely to be damaged. This adds to the woes the country's corn producers, who are already facing losses due to the 15-year ban on genetically modified maize.

Revised data indicate that wheat production levels in Italy were higher during 2010/11 and 2011/12 than originally estimated. Production grew 6.9% year-on-year, to 6.8mn tonnes, during 2010/11 (compared with earlier estimates of 6.5mn tonnes), while output reached 6.6mn tonnes in 2011/2012 (compared with estimates of a modest 6.2mn tonnes for the year). Likewise, we have revised up our forecast for 2012/13 and are now expecting production to surpass 7mn tonnes, growing by 6.2% y-o-y. In addition to the favourable base effects, growth will come on the back of a 15.0% increase in area planted and better yields as a result of satisfactory weather.

High temperatures in Italy are affecting milk production. According to estimates from the country's agricultural union Coldiretti, Italian dairy cattle are producing nearly 10% less milk owing to a heat wave despite steps taken by farmers to cool the animals with showers and fans. That said, Italian dairy firm Parmalat, owned by French dairy firm Lactalis, posted a 7.8% y-o-y increase in its net profit for H112 (ended June). The rise in sales has been attributed to improved emerging market sales and higher margins in the group's core markets. Parmalat's revenue increased 6.1% y-o-y to EUR2.28bn (US$2.80bn) in H112, up from EUR2.15bn ($2.64bn) in H111. The firm has attributed the rise in revenue to higher sales volumes from its Australian, Russian and African units and higher margins from its Canadian and Italian dairy units.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Italy Agricultural SWOT
- Italy Business Environment SWOT
Supply & Demand Analysis
- Italy Grains Outlook
- Table: Italy Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Italy Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Italy Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Italy Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Italy Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Italy Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Italy Rice Outlook
- Table: Italy Rice Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Italy Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Italy Dairy Outlook
- Table: Italy Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Italy Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Italy Cheese Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Italy Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Italy Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Italy Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Italy Livestock Outlook
- Table: Italy Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Italy Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Italy Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
- Table: Italy Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Italy Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
- Table: Italy Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Grains Update
- Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Monthly Softs Update
- Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
- Europe GM Seeds Outlook
- Table: Brazil, United States - Corn Production, Consumption & Trade, 2011-2016
- Europe Fertiliser Outlook
- EMEA Machinery Outlook
Downstream Analysis
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Confectionery
- Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Canned/Prepared Food
- Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
- Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables, 2009-2016
- Table: Snack Foods, 2009-2016
- Table: Pasta, 2009-2016
- Meat, Fish And Dairy
- Table: Meat, 2009-2016
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=456345&dt=t

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