2013-12-29 18:28:21 - Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Portugal Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2014", is now available at Fast Market Research
Portugal's economy continues to struggle in the face of IMF-imposed austerity measures, but the latest review suggests that it is on track, and meeting its targets. But as far as the pharmaceutical and healthcare industry is concerned, it is still a long way from recovery. Health budgets are set to be slashed again in 2014; the authorities have to make further cuts in reimbursement; and reference prices are continually pushed downwards. In a further blow to the sector, new controls in place affect hospital's ability to prescribe innovative drugs. The few opportunities for growth are being taken by manufactures of generic drugs - which are gaining market share - and some non-prescription medicines. There are moves to boost Portugal's export
sector, through initiatives such as Health Cluster Portugal and Pharma Portugal, but a new set of regulations will affect distributors' ability to export innovative drugs. It is not until 2015 that we forecast Portugal's healthcare market will return to growth, while pharmaceuticals will have to wait until 2019 for an upward turn.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/754640_portugal_pharmaceuticals_healthcare_r ..
Headline Expenditure Projections
* Pharmaceuticals: EUR3.74bn (US$4.75bn) in 2012 to EUR3.48bn (US$4.62bn) in 2013; -7.0% in local currency and -2.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged from Q413.
* Healthcare: EUR16.82bn (US$21.36bn) in 2012 to EUR16.23bn (US$21.58bn) in 2013; -3.5% in local currency and +1.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged from Q413.
Risk/Rewards Rating: In Q114, Portugal sat at the bottom of our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) for Western Europe, with a score of 59 out of 100. Portugal posts below regional average scores for all indicators.
Key Trends & Developments
* In order to reduce parallel exports and shortages of innovative medicines, Infarmed launched a pilot legislation in November 2013 that requires distributors or drugmakers to obtain permission before exporting certain medicines. The pilot is in place until end-December 2013.
* While Portugal's pharma market is contracting overall, the latest data from Infarmed show that sales of non-prescription drugs in mass market outlets are increasing. Sales climbed by 5.5% in value in H113 compared to H112 to EUR16.4mn.
* The 2014 budget for healthcare will be approximately 9.4% lower than in 2012. One of the areas pinpointed for as an opportunity for savings is in drug reimbursement: Infarmed aims to cut EUR30mn from the drugs bill.
BMI Economic View: We estimate that Portugal's economy has continued to struggle during 2013 and into 2014, with real GDP growth of -3% and -0.5% respectively. For the economy to return to growth, Portugal will have to improve its competitiveness in exports; in the meantime, domestic demand continues to fall.
BMI Political View: After a shake-up of the cabinet in mid-2013, Portugal's politicians have reaffirmed their commitment to the IMF's economic agenda, with the latest reports from the ECB/IMF/EU suggesting that Portugal is on track and is meeting its objectives.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Business Environment
- Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
- Table: Portugal Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Healthcare Market Forecast
- Table: Portugal Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Portugal Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Portugal Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Portugal Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Portugal Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Top Generic Drugs By Value In 2011
- Table: Average Price Of Top Generic Drugs By Value 2010-2011
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: OTC Sales Outside Of Pharmacies By Therapeutic Group (Jan-Sep 2012)
- Table: OTC Sales Outside Of Pharmacies By District (Jan-Sep 2012)
- Table: OTC Sales Outside Of Pharmacies By Sales Outlet (Jan-Sep2012)
- Table: Portugal OTC Sales Outside Of Pharmacies By Active Ingredient (Jan-Sep 2012)
- Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
- Table: Portugal Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
- Other Healthcare Data
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecasts
- Economic Analysis
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
- Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Portugal Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Trends And Developments
- Healthcare System
- Hospital Infrastructure And Services
- Outpatient Infrastructure And Services
- Healthcare Workforce
- Clinical Trials
- Regulatory Regime
- Parallel Imports
- Recent EU Regulatory Developments
- Pricing Regime
- Reimbursement Regime
- Pharmaceutical Sector
- Company Developments
- Pharmaceutical Distribution
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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