2013-02-01 18:16:02 - New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Romania Oil & Gas Report Q1 2013"
BMI View: The exploration efforts of ExxonMobil and OMV Petrom in the Black Sea could signal a turning point in Romania's upstream prospectivity, helping reduce dramatically the country's gas import dependency from around 2018. IOC interest in Romania is now on the rise and, if exploited by the government, could result in much higher investment levels. Given the shale gas moratorium, the Domino discovery has taken on still greater significance.
The main trends and developments for Romania's oil and gas sector are:
* The new Romanian government is to wait until after general elections in December 2012 before deciding upon whether or not to allow on shale gas exploitation in the country, using the controversial hydraulic fracturing (fracking) method. The previous
administration had in March 2012 awarded US oil major Chevron exploration, exploitation and development rights for shale gas in large areas near the Black Sea. Chevron itself in April suspended its shale gas exploration activities in respect to the exploration and extraction of shale gas in Romania, due to concerns related to fracking.
* ExxonMobil and OMV Petrom discovered natural gas with their Domino-1 deep water exploration well in the Romanian sector of the Black Sea, and early estimates of up to 85bn cubic metres (bcm) have been attributed to the prospect. The discovery well in the Neptun block, in water depths of approximately 1,000 metres (m), was drilled to a total depth of more than 3,000m. A 3D seismic programme is being conducted before further drilling takes place to prove-up the block's potential. If successful, first production is unlikely before 2018.
* Natural gas consumption - estimated to stand at 13.7bcm in 2012 - is expected to reach at least 15.8bcm over the forecast period to 2016, then rise further to 18.8bcm by 2021. Romania's gas production is forecast to slip to no more than 8.0bcm by 2016, resulting in a net import requirement of at least 2.8bcm by 2021. However, success in proving up the Domino find in the Black Sea could mean volumes rising towards the end of the forecast period - potentially exceeding 10bcm in 2018 and reaching 16bcm by 2021.
* The construction of a bi-directional Iasi-Ungheni gas pipeline, connecting the gas networks of Romania and Moldova, will provide an alternative source of gas supply to both countries. The EUR19.2mn (US$24.9mn) pipeline will have an annual throughput of 1.5bcm. The pipeline will have a length of 43.2km, of which 32.8km will be in Romanian territory. Construction work is expected to last 17 months, with Romania investing approximately EUR12mn (US$15.6mn) in the project.
* Oil demand has stagnated in recent years and will only grow once underlying economic activity picks up. We do not expect to see demand growth reaching 3.0% per annum until beyond 2014, implying consumption of no more than 249,000 barrels per day (b/d) by 2016 and 277,000b/d by 2021. We see domestic liquids production slipping from an estimated 102,400b/d in 2012 to less than 93,000b/d over the period to 2016. This implies rising import levels, with volumes of almost 156,000b/d anticipated by 2016. Liquids associated with the Domino gas find in the Black Sea could support domestic volumes later in the decade.
* The cost of crude imports in 2012 is an estimated US$4.6bn, and could rise to around US$5.3bn in 2016, reflecting an assumed 2012 average OPEC basket oil price of US$107.05 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$93.25/bbl in 2016. Gas imports could cost the country US$3.6bn by 2016 - taking the combined crude and gas import bill for the end of the period to US$8.9bn. This should, however, be partially offset by the export of refined petroleum products.
Full Report Details at
Partial Table of Contents:
- Romania Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Table: Romania Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Romania Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015 - 2021
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Romania Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Romania Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015 - 2021
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Romania Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Romania Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015 - 2021
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Table: Romania Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Romania Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015 - 2021
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Country Risk/Reward Ratings
- Romania Upstream Rating - Overview
- Romania Upstream Rating - Rewards
- Romania Upstream Rating - Risks
- Romania Downstream Rating - Overview
Regional Risk/Reward Rating
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
- Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Romania Energy Market Overview
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- Licensing Rounds
- International Energy Relations
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Romania
- Service Stations
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- Oil Pipelines
- LNG Terminals
- Gas Storage Facilities
- Gas Pipelines
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players - Romania Oil And Gas Sector
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
- OMV Petrom
- Lukoil Romania
- OMV Romania
- Eni - Summary
- ExxonMobil - Summary
- MOL - Summary
- Regal Petroleum - Summary
- Aurelian Oil & Gas - Summary
- Melrose Resources - Summary
- Others - Summary
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Global Energy Market Outlook
- Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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