2013-09-18 08:58:14 - New Consumer Goods market report from Business Monitor International: "Serbia Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2013"
We project Serbian consumer electronics spending will grow by about 7% in US dollar terms in 2013 to US$1.2bn. Serbia is one of the least developed consumer electronics markets in Central and Eastern Europe. With penetration of many consumer electronics devices being lower than in many regional peer countries. PC household penetration, despite more than doubling over the previous five years, remains at below 30%, while smartphone penetration of around 15%, is below the European average, and could more than double over the next two years. Stubbornly high unemployment will constrain household spending in the short term, while elevated inflation will impinge on real purchasing power. However, economic growth, rising disposable incomes and the development of organised retail infrastructure are
forecast to drive longer-term growth. Sales of flat-screen TV sets and feature-rich notebook computers will continue to benefit from falling prices and more aggressive vendor and distributor promotion. Smartphones provided a bright spot for retailers in 2012, accounting for around 50% of sales on leading networks in Q412.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/673307_serbia_consumer_electronics_report_q4 ..
* Computer Hardware Sales: US$445mn in 2012 to US$493mn in 2013; +11% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged but tablet sales should provide a growth area as prices fall.
* AV Sales: US$397mn in 2012 to US$408mn in 2013; +3% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms Downwardly revised due to analyst adjustment. Flat-screen TV sets will be the main growth driver as Serbia continues its steady migration to digital broadcasting.
* Handset Sales: US$268mn in 2012 to US$284mn in 2013; +6% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, with smartphone penetration rising rapidly from levels.
Serbia's score was 36.1 out of 100.0, which gave it an unchanged seventh place in our latest Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) table. BMI expects Serbia to climb up our RRR rankings over time due to the growth potential of its market, particularly given low but rising PC penetration.
Key Trends & Developments
* Demand for higher-end models will help support the Serbian handset market in the face of the slowing subscriber growth rate. The smartphone penetration rate of around 15% remains below the level found in Western European markets, and slightly below the CEE average, leaving plenty of room for growth. Low-priced smartphone models have sold the best but demand for more expensive smartphones such as the Samsung Galaxy II was reported by retailers to hold up fairly well, despite the economic crisis. Smartphones now account for around one-third of handsets in use on major Serbian networks such as VIP Mobile. Serbia's digital TV migration has lagged much of Europe, due to delays in agreeing on subsidies and other measures, but may now be accelerating. According to the Serbian Ministry for Telecommunications and Information Society, Serbia was due to complete its switchover to digital broadcasting of radio and TV programmes in 2012. The EU has contributed around EUR10.5mn to the EUR12mn cost of migration, with an estimated market for digital receivers of 1.5mn households. After years of delays, the commitment to a deadline should help to put the market for digital TV sets on a more promising trajectory. The government has also announced additional funding to support the transition, including new funds to subsidise set-top box purchases.
* Serbia is a smaller PC market than its neighbours Croatia and Slovenia, and less than half the size of Croatia. However, with fewer than 50% of Serbian households having a computer according to BMI estimates, the market has continued growth potential. Rising disposable incomes and progress towards EU accession are expected to be among the drivers of PC market growth. Around 97.8% of Serbian companies make use of computers.
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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