2013-02-03 16:33:36 - New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Slovenia Oil & Gas Report Q1 2013"

BMI View: There are glimmers of hope in the upstream segment, with the Ascent-operated Petisovci tight gas scheme capable of improving energy self-sufficiency and slowing the rate of growth in gas imports. However, overall volumes are likely to be relatively modest, with imported Russian gas set to dominate supply for the foreseeable future.

The main trends and developments in Slovenia's oil & gas sector are:

* Independent explorer Ascent Resources has recorded promising results from fracture stimulation at its Petisovci tight gas project in Slovenia. Operations at the Pg-11A well indicate the potential for high gas productivity. The company is hoping to ascertain the commerciality of the project and hopes further testing at Pg-11A will outline flow potential. First production from

Petisovci has been delayed until mid-2013.
* Ascent is in talks with a number of parties over the sale of part of its Petisovci project. Serbia's NIS, controlled by Russia's Gazprom Neft, is said to be close to finalising an agreement to take a stake in the project. Ascent has been particularly upbeat over the prospects of the project, with estimates of gas-in-place of as much as 17bn cubic metres (bcm). In February 2012, Ascent reported a 22% increase in P50 gas-in-place (GIP) volumes - to 14.3bcm, which was above the 11.7bcm previously announced for the scheme. The 200sq km Petisovci area straddles the Hungary/Slovenia border and contains three depleted shallow conventional oil and gas fields.
* Gas demand, which fell by 14% in 2011 (according to government data), is expected to have reached 1.2bcm by 2016, increasing to 1.5bcm by 2021. Domestic production for 2016-2021 is forecast to come in at around 0.8bcm based on the Petisovci-Lovaszi project, meaning that there will be a greatly reduced import requirement. Further success in proving up reserves and production potential could mean risk to the upside in terms of domestic gas supply.
* Oil consumption is expected to track the underlying GDP trend, with demand keeping pace with economic growth. A lack of supply infrastructure means a more dramatic rise in oil use is unlikely until much later in our 10-year forecast period. The country consumed around 2% less oil in 2011, according to government data. Our projections state that oil consumption will reach 60,500 barrels per day (b/d) in 2016, before rising to 68,100b/d by 2021, met entirely by imports.
* The oil import bill for 2012 is expected to have come in at US$2.1bn and will be around this level in 2016. The BMI OPEC basket oil price assumptions are US$107.05 per barrel (bbl) for 2012, US$93.25/bbl in 2016 and US$91.50/bbl in 2021. However, given the absence of domestic refining capacity, Slovenia largely imports refined products, so the oil import bill is expected to exceed US$3.00bn later in the forecast period. The gas import bill could fall dramatically from 2013 if development of Petisovci proceeds to plan. Taking into account the likely cost of refined products imports, the total petroleum bill by 2016 could be US$3.0bn.


Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/529493_slovenia_oil_gas_report_q1_2013.aspx


Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Slovenia Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Table: Slovenia Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Slovenia Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015 - 2021
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Slovenia Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Slovenia Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015 - 2021
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Slovenia Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010 - 2017
- Table: Slovenia Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015 - 2021
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Table: Slovenia Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Slovenia Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015 - 2021
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Country Risk/Reward Ratings
- Slovenia Upstream Rating - Overview
- Slovenia Upstream Rating - Rewards
- Slovenia Upstream Rating - Risks
- Slovenia Downstream Rating - Overview
Regional Risk/Reward Rating
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
- Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Slovenia Energy Market Overview
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing and Regulation
- Government Policy
- International Energy Relations
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Slovenia
- Service Stations
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- Oil Pipelines
- Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profiles
- Petrol
- Geoplin
- Nafta Lendava
- OMV - Summary
- Ascent Resources - Summary
- MOL Slovenija - Summary
- Istrabenz Group - Summary
- Others - Summary
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Global Energy Market Outlook
- Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts - A Comparison
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
- Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
- Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
- Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ('000b/d)
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