2014-01-22 22:24:02 - New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "United Arab Emirates Retail Report Q1 2014"
The UAE retail sector is forecast to continue to grow over the next few years, with strong underlying economic growth, growing acceptance of the concept of modern retailing and expatriate wealth resulting in a strong rise in household spending across all retail subsectors. We are particularly positive about the future growth prospects for clothing & footwear and food & non-alcoholic drinks; however, we expect by far the highest proportion of the household budget to be spent on housing & utilities throughout our forecast period. Food & non-alcoholic drinks and transport will also take substantial shares.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/763940_united_arab_emirates_retail_report_q1 ..
The new UAE retail report provides an extensive and comprehensive forecast of various retail indicators including household spending and headline
total spending across each retail subsector, household income and employment forecasts, demographic forecasts and a detailed breakdown of household and per capita spending across a large number of retail areas including food & drink, clothing & footwear, household goods and a number of other subsectors.
The UAE's economy has grown at phenomenal speed over the past decade, and it has been almost impossible for the consumer goods industry to keep up with the development of tastes and preferences. Modern retail outlets are concentrated in the largest emirates of Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Sharjah, whose populations account for 34%, 32% and 19% of the total UAE population respectively, according to census data issued by the Ministry of Economy. However, the federal government's plan to pursue a largescale infrastructure spending programme in the north will bring about significant investment opportunities over the coming years, particularly in Ras al-Khaimah.
We see long-term potential in the UAE consumer market, particularly for branded and luxury goods that appeal to a sophisticated and wealthy population. We forecast average net income per capita to be a hefty US$39,294 in 2013, with 99% of households falling into the top wage bracket of US$50,000+. By 2018, 99.2% of households are expected to be in this top income bracket, which bodes well for continued high household spending on luxury and branded items. We expect a corresponding increase in household spending on personal, insurance & other; restaurants & hotels; and recreation & culture.
BMI remains bullish on the economic outlook for the UAE as a wealth of data points to continued growth. With consumer and business sentiment looking positive, the outlook for household consumption and fixed investment is particularly bright over the coming quarters. Following real GDP growth of 6.2% in 2012, we are projecting the economy to expand by a more moderate 4.1% in 2013, before slowing to 3.4% in 2014. A sharper-than-expected decline in oil prices or any unplanned outages in oil production pose the most significant threat to our forecasts.
Recent Developments Include:
Majid al-Futtaim Fashion, the retail arm of Majid al-Futtaim (MAF), has reached agreement with US retailer Abercrombie & Fitch to bring the brand to Dubai by 2014.
British brands Mothercare and Boots made their debut in the UAE in 2013.
MAF plans to spend about US$272mn upgrading the Mall of the Emirates in Dubai, including a new fashion district.
Key BMI Forecasts:
We expect total household spending to be US$208.78bn in 2013.
Household numbers will reach 978,492 in 2013, up 3.4% from the year before, and we expect growth to average 3.6% throughout our forecast period to 2018.
Around 1.16mn households will be in the US$50,000+ income bracket by the end of 2018, according to our forecasts, representing more than 99% of the total.
In our proprietary Risk Reward Ratings, UAE scores an overall retail risk reward rating of 60.86, putting it in first place overall in the Middle East and Africa.
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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