2014-01-23 20:25:55 - New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
We remain positive on the growth trajectory for the US economy over the next several years, as we believe that many structural factors are aligning for a period of sustained growth, underpinning our forecast for real GDP growth to average 2.4% per year from 2013-2018, up from 0.8% per year from 2008-2012. The labour market recovery, while well under way, has further to go, meaning that modest increases in job creation will prove to be a boon to spending over the medium term. Consumer deleveraging continues, meaning that a future upswing in credit will also accelerate private consumption. All these will benefit food & drink consumption growth, but we are not yet convinced that the industry will see growth recovering
to levels seen before the crisis. This will favour growth in lower value segments of the food and drink sector (canned and beer) as well as convenience and discount stores over normal retail stores in 2014.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/760719_united_states_food_drink_report_q1_20 ..
Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency)
* 2014 per capita food consumption = +2.0%; five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017 = +2.6%.
* 2014 alcoholic drinks value sales = +3.6%; CAGR to 2017 = +3.6%.
* 2014 soft drink value sales = +3.1%; CAGR to 2017 = +2.9%.
* 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +2.9%; CAGR to 2017 = +2.8 %.
Key Industry Trends And Developments
ADM To Face Challenges Amid Acquisition Collapse: Australian authorities recently rejected US-based Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)'s bid for Australian grain trader GrainCorp, dealing a blow to ADM's efforts to diversify away from its focus on the US corn and soybean industries. ADM, which already owns 19.9% of GrainCorp, was seeking to acquire the remaining 80.1%. Currently, ADM receives 52.0% of its revenues from these industries, and it was particularly vulnerable to the US drought in 2012. The company is also highly exposed to mature markets, where we see little potential for growth to pick up in the medium term. In order to increase its geographic diversification in recent years, ADM has already acquired stakes in Wilmar International, which operates in oilseeds in Asia, and Toepfer, a German grain and oilseed trader operating in Australia. However, the purchase of GrainCorp would have increased ADM's market share in the wheat and barley markets, as GrainCorp controls most of the grain storage and export facilities in eastern Australia.
Coca-Cola Offers US$16mn To End Tabani Bottling Row: US-based beverage giant The Coca-Cola Company has offered US$16mn to settle a decade-old bottling agreement with Bangladesh beverage company Tabani Beverage. The amount will be used by Tabani to clear its liabilities. The move will further clear the way for Coca-Cola to invest US$50mn to set up a manufacturing plant in Bangladesh, according to the proposal. This came a year after the soft drink producer had denied to renew the bottling agreement with Tabani, which could not set up a PET (polyethylene terephthalate) bottling plant due to holds by the government.
Whole Foods Market Shares Sell On Q4 Results: The upscale US food retailer Whole Foods Market (WFM) has had a great run since 2009 as demand for its relatively expensive offering of fresh food at convenient locations has kept growing in spite of what has generally been a really challenging macroeconomic environment. Expanding at a relatively slower pace than many mainstream retailers, quality of produce and customer service are crucial USPs and in terms of its success, the proof is in the pudding with the retailer's share price up by more than 300% since 2010.
Key Risks To Outlook
* Downside Risks To Growth Forecast: The biggest external risk is a collapse of the eurozone, which would hit the US via a financial sector shock and via trade channels. A major domestic policy error, especially with regards to the debt ceiling, could push the US into recession.
* Downside Risks To Long-Term Outlook: The gaping fiscal deficit and rising government debt burden are not an immediate concern, but they do pose a risk to macroeconomic stability over the longer term.
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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
About Fast Market Research
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