2013-02-03 16:37:24 - Fast Market Research recommends "United States Metals Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI View: Our forecasts across the refined metals sector in the US remains mixed as the country's economic recovery remains tenuous and long-term trends of declining consumption continue to play out. In the short term, we anticipate refiners and metal producers will continue bringing production back online as the country's economic outlook improves, particularly in the construction and automotive sectors. That said, production and consumption will likely remain below pre-crisis levels as Chinese economic weakness and eurozone troubles loom over the global economy.
We believe slow but steady growth in the metals sector will roughly track broader GDP growth, which we forecast to average 2.4% from 2013 to 2017. That said, we highlight that the looming expiry of the 2001/2003 tax
cuts at the end of 2012, and automatic spending cuts set to be implemented in January 2013, are of high stakes to the US economy. Total expiry of the tax cuts, and cutting government spending, would almost certainly tip an already-weak economy into a severe recession, with a fiscal contraction that could easily amount to 3.0-5.0% of GDP.
Full Report Details at
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The US metals sector does rely somewhat on imports of some mineral inputs such as bauxite and tin. We forecast little change in the nature of US metals trade, but recognise that sharp changes to metals prices could impact this dynamic. We expect the bulk of metals sector production will be supplied by domestic mineral resources to support US industries rather than for export abroad. We also note that domestic US companies will dominate production of their respective metals, although laws on foreign ownership of US based companies enables some foreign companies to operate as well.
Construction And Automotive Sectors To Drive Growth
Metals consumption in the US will be driven largely by growth in the construction and auto sectors. The construction industry is forecast to grow 0.5% on average per annum through 2017, with the auto industry expanding 3.9% on average per annum through the period. A recovering housing market should also support demand of durable goods. Residential construction and durable goods both make heavy use of refined metals, particularly steel and copper. Though we do not forecast the housing market to recover to pre-financial crisis levels during the forecast period, data in late 2012 remains promising. Lastly, we also cite increasing investment in the US natural gas industry, which should support demand for pipelines, heavy machinery, and other industrial equipment, though it must be noted the industry as a whole accounts for a small percent of metals end use. Despite these positive developments, we note the long-term trend of decreasing metals consumption, even when accounting for the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Thus, we forecast metals consumption to begin contracting by mid-decade.
Report Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- United States Metals
- Steel: Positive Trends To Reverse By Mid-Decade
- Table: US - Steel Production, Consumption & Balance, 2009 - 2017 ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
- Aluminium: Weakness To Continue
- Table: Table - US Aluminium Consumption and Production, 2009 - 2017
- Copper: Consumption & Production Trends To Diverge
- Table: US - Refined Copper Production & Consumption, 2009 - 2017 (kt)
- Zinc: Production & Consumption Growth Subdued
- Table: Table: US - Refined Zinc Production & Consumption, 2009 - 2017 ('000 tonnes)
- Economic Analysis
- Weakness In Most Categories of GDP
- Table: United States - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
- Risks To Outlook
- Monthly Metals Update
- Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts
- Steel Forecast
- Table: Steel Forecast
- Table: Steel Forecasts
- United States Competitive Landscape
- Table: Financial Data For Key Metals Firms Listed In The US, FY 2011
- Table: Table: Alcoa - Financial Data
- Table: Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
- Table: Nucor - Key Financial Data
- United States Demographic Data
- Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Cross Checks
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