2013-02-02 16:11:35 - New Healthcare market report from Business Monitor International: "Uzbekistan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2013"

BMI View: We maintain the view that risk-averse pharmaceutical, healthcare and medical device companies should avoid Uzbekistan. While the country has a definite need for pharmaceuticals and medical devices, the regulatory environment remains opaque and state-dominated. Moreover, the government is committed to boosting Uzbekistan's domestic capacity for pharmaceutical manufacturing, which is expected to gradually decrease market potential for most generic medicines.

Headline Expenditure Projections

* Pharmaceuticals: UZS853.25bn (US$498mn) in 2011 to UZS993.00bn (US$563mn) in 2012; up 16.4% in local currency terms and 13.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q412.
* Healthcare: UZS4,081bn (US$2.38bn) in 2011 to UZS4,932bn (US$2.79bn) in 2012; up 20.8% in local currency terms and 17.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q412.
* Medical devices:

UZS155.82bn (US$91mn) in 2011 to UZS179.45bn (US$102mn) in 2012; up 15.2% in local currency terms and 11.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q412.


Full Report Details at
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Risk/Reward Ratings: Uzbekistan's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) for Q113 is 39.6 out of 100. The composite score, unchanged in relation to the previous quarter, again makes the country the least attractive out of the 20 key markets surveyed in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Uzbekistan scores below the regional average for all indicators in the proprietary ranking system and we do not expect this situation to improve in the medium term.

Key Trends And Developments

* Uzbekistan plans to invest US$290.5mn in FY2012/13 to develop the nation's pharmaceutical industry, said Mirzanazim Dusmuratov, the chairperson of the board of the Uzpharmasanoat state joint-stock concern, in August 2012. Uzbekistan's pharmaceutical industry will implement 39 new investment projects for producing 30 new generic drugs for the prevention and treatment of socially significant and socially dangerous diseases. There is a high demand for such products, which are imported into the country primarily through import contracts.

BMI Economic View: We anticipate Uzbekistan's economic growth trajectory to remain strong in 2012 and 2013, in spite of a mild slowdown in export growth. High prices for key commodity exports and continued public investment into strategic sectors will underpin robust growth in Central Asia. We forecast real GDP growth at 7.8% in 2012 and 7.6% in 2013 - down from an estimated 8.3% in 2011.

BMI Political View: We see Uzbekistan's membership suspension of the Eurasian military alliance group, known as the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), in June 2012 as part of the country's long term multi-vector foreign policy. While this could aggravate relations with Russia in the short term, we expect that the increased manoeuvrability available to Russia (as a result of one less veto) will be welcomed over the longer term. From Uzbekistan's point of view, the move can be interpreted as President Islam Karimov's attempt to foster a multi-vector foreign policy, extracting the most gains possible from bilateral relations, while also fiercely guarding the country's sovereignty and independence.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Uzbekistan Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Pharmaceutical Risk Reward Ratings, Q113
- Rewards
- Risks
Uzbekistan - Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
- Counterfeit Drugs
- Intellectual Property Rights
- Pricing And Reimbursement
Industry Developments
- Epidemiology
- Communicable Diseases
- Healthcare Sector
- Healthcare Provision
- Health Insurance Sector
- Healthcare Sector Reforms
- Research & Development
- Clinical Trials
- International Cooperation
- Medical Devices
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Overall Market Forecast
- Table: Uzbekistan Pharmaceutical Forecasts 2008-2016
- Healthcare Market Forecast
- Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016
- Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016
- Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016
- Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
- Table: Uzbekistan Economic Activity
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016
- Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
- Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Exports, 2008-2016
- Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Imports, 2008-2016
- Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Balance, 2008-2016
- Medical Devices Market Forecast
- Table: Medical Device Sales, 2008-2016
- Other Healthcare Data
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
- Pharmaceutical Industry
- Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry
- Leading Domestic Players
- Table: List Of Companies Within Uzfarmsanoat SJSC (as of April 20, 2011)
- Pharmaceutical Sector Reforms
- Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry
- Recent Pharmaceutical Industry Developments
- Pharmaceutical Wholesale
- Pharmaceutical Retail
Company Profiles
- Local Companies
- Jurabek Laboratories
- Uzpharmsanoat
- Asklepiy Pharmaceutical Company
- Table: Uzbekistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
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