2013-02-02 16:11:36 - New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
BMI View: A Year of Slow Growth
We forecast real GDP growth of 2.2% in Venezuela in 2013. Our GDP forecasts remain under 3.0% per year throughout our five-year forecast period. BMI's negative macro outlook for Venezuela feeds into our view on the country's freight transport sector, which continues to be bearish, due to concerns about lack of import demand, and slowing oil exports.
In particular, the chronic mismanagement of the country's port facilities since they were nationalised in 2009 has damaged their international reputation and their profit-making abilities. We do not expect any significant recouping of lost throughput levels over the medium term. Over a longer period, investments from China could see the facilities begin to regain some of their former
On the downside, however, a possible economic slowdown in China, a close trading partner of Venezuela, could negatively affect the country's freight transport volumes. Over the 2013-2017 forecast period growth will average only 2.5% per annum, well below the country's real potential. By transport modes, air freight will lead the way, followed by shipping (Venezuela lacks reliable data on rail freight and road haulage volumes). BMI does not expect any transport mode to see volume growth exceeding 4.0%, however.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/529533_venezuela_freight_transport_report_20 ..
Headline Industry Data
* Air freight volume carried in 2013 will expand by 7.2% to 6.2mn tonnes-km, with average growth of 5.8% to 2017.
* 2013 Puerto Cabello tonnage throughput growth forecast at 1.9%. Slow growth is expected to continue over the medium term, averaging 1.6% to 2017.
* 2013 Puerto Cabello container throughput to grow by 4.3%, and forecast to average 3.9% over our forecast period.
Key Industry Trends
Freight Transport Network Underdeveloped, Chinese Investments To Alleviate Problem Venezuela's freight transport network continues to struggle with poor infrastructure and badly managed facilities, which limit the volumes which can be carried, and discourage international companies from operating there. In 2012, there was some movement from the Venezuelan government towards improving the state of the country's neglected ports, an effort which could be helped by Chinese investment. The Asian Dragon has become a regular investor in Venezuelan freight transport projects, as part of its wider efforts to help revive Venezuela's mining sector. BMI believes that the involvement of Chinese firms in the development of the Venezuelan transport network will ensure that demand for Venezuelan iron ore exports remains robust, thereby helping it to secure access to a huge and growing trading partner. Furthermore, the involvement of China will facilitate much-needed transport network improvements.
Key Risks To Outlook
Due to Venezuela's reliance on oil exports to finance government expenditure and stimulate private consumption, the risks to the country's long-term outlook are predominantly linked to oil prices. Despite not being our core scenario, a global slowdown triggered by a Chinese hard landing or a double-dip recession in the US and Europe would severely hit demand for oil and lead to a decline of oil export receipts, which could be catastrophic for the government's expansive expenditure plans, as well as having knock-on effects for the transport sector. Further, the high costs of exploiting Venezuelan oil - notably in the Orinoco field - means we foreign investment and oil output could fall, if prices were to decline below a certain level.
Report Table of Contents:
- Venezuela Freight Transport Industry SWOT
- Venezuela Political SWOT
- Venezuela Economic SWOT
- Venezuela Business Environment SWOT
Industry Trends And Developments
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Air Freight
- Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
- Maritime Freight
- Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
- Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
- Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
- Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
- Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
- Domestic Politics
- Domestic Politics: Long-Term Outlook
- Table: Venezuela - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
- Consorcio Venezolano de Industrias Aeronauticas y Servicios Aereos, S.A. (Conviasa)
- Petroleos de Venezuela Marina
Venezuela Demographic Outlook
- Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
- Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
- Table: Venezuela's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
- Table: Venezuela's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Transport Industry
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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