2013-01-30 08:51:36 - New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Vietnam Oil & Gas Report Q1 2013"

BMI View: Oil output will remain fairly steady over the next five years as production from new developments offsets declining volumes at the flagship Bach Ho field. We expect oil output to peak in 2013, at 370,640b/d, before declining rapidly to just 308,550b/d by 2021. Given that demand is set to rise in line with strong economic growth, Vietnam should become a growing importer of oil. New developments are set to boost long-term gas production to 12.2bcm by 2016, but rapid consumption growth will necessitate LNG imports from 2015.

The main trends and developments for Vietnam's Oil and Gas sector are:


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* New production from the Te Giac Trang (White Rhino), Dai Hung (Big Bear)

and Chim Soa (Blackbird) developments will help offset declines at the flagship Bach Ho field. These projects will drive production to a new peak of 371,640 barrels per day (b/d) in 2013, up from 328,200b/d in 2011, according to EIA estimates.
* Consumption growth is likely to slow in 2013 and 2014 following a 4% increase in the government's fuel price cap. We anticipate oil demand of 366,100b/d in 2012, rising to 396,200b/d by 2016.
* BMI estimates gas production will rise from an estimated 8.6bcm in 2012 to 12.2bcm by 2016. Despite the increase, demand will outstrip supply from 2015, with up to 1.38bcm of net imports expected in that year. By 2021, net imports of gas could hit as much as 5.52bcm, all in the form of LNG.
* Oil and gas reserves could rise if new exploration gathers pace following the conclusion of the country's latest licensing round. However, ongoing risks from vigorous Chinese opposition to drilling in the disputed South China Sea could delay exploration. Therefore, for 2013 we have kept our oil reserves forecasts unchanged at 4.4bn barrels (bbl) and expects gas reserves to remain at 690bcm, from 691bcm in 2012.
* The development of Vietnam's refining industry is advancing, albeit at a much slower pace than initially expected. The development of the Dung Quat refinery could raise capacity to more than 200,000b/d by 2016. We also anticipate that the Nghi Son refinery will be the first new project to come onstream, with a targeted start date of 2015/2016, though financing difficulties pose significant downside risk to our expectations.Vietnam's refinery developments will preserve valuable light sweet domestic crudes for export, while allowing for the processing of cheaper heavier foreign grades for domestic consumption.

At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2013 of US99.10/barrel (bbl), falling to US$96.20/bbl in 2014. Global GDP in 2013 is forecast at 3.0%, up from an assumed 2.6% in 2012 reflecting some recovery in the US, though uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation and an apparent Chinese slowdown will continue to hamper growth. For 2014, growth is estimated at 3.2%.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Vietnam Oil and Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil and Gas Reserves
- Table: Vietnam Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Vietnam Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data, 2015 - 2021
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Vietnam Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Vietnam Oil Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015 - 2021
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Vietnam Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Vietnam Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2015 - 2021
- LNG
- Refining/Oil Products Trade
- Table: Vietnam Refining - Production and Consumption, 2010 - 2016
- Table: Vietnam Refining - Production and Consumption, 2015 - 2021
- Revenues/Import Costs
Vietnam's Risk/Reward Ratings
- Vietnam Risk/Reward Ratings - Overview
- Vietnam Upstream Ratings - Rewards
- Vietnam Upstream Ratings - Risks
- Downstream Scores
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings
- Table: Asia Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
- Table: Asia Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Vietnam Energy Market Overview
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing And Regulation
- Government Policy
- International Relations
- Table: Vietnam - Upstream Projects Database
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Vietnam's Main Refineries
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players - Vietnam Oil And Gas Sector
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profiles
- PetroVietnam
- TNK-BP
- Petronas Vietnam
- Zarubezhneft
- Vietgazprom - Summary
- Perenco - Summary
- Lukoil - Summary
- Idemitsu Kosan - Summary
- Korea National Oil Corporation - Summary
- Royal Dutch Shell - Summary
- Chevron - Summary
- Talisman Energy - Summary
- Premier Oil - Summary
- Gazprom - Summary
- Soco International - Summary
- Total - Summary
- Petrolimex - Summary
- Neon Energy - Summary
- Others - Summary
Regional Energy Market Outlook
- Table: Number Of Rigs In Operation In Asia

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