2013-09-16 08:49:10 - Fast Market Research recommends "West Caribbean Business Forecast Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
BMI Ratings - Brief Methodology
The composite rating is an unweighted geometric mean of the short-term political and short-term economy ratings, allowing a ranking of all countries in BMI's emerging markets universe.
The political ratings are an indicator of political stability, seen as a pre-requisite for a stable economy and business environment. The long-term political rating considers more structural elements such as: Is there a functioning democracy? Are there free and fair elections? Is there separation between party and state? Have recent governments pursued similar, enlightened policies amid a stable political environment? The short-term political rating considers more transient influences such as: Have there been recent large-scale demonstrations or strikes? To what extent have these threatened the political status quo?
Is unemployment currently a potential source of political instability? What is the current position in the political cycle - to what extent is this contributing to political risk? Is the government having trouble passing legislation?
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/673186_west_caribbean_business_forecast_repo ..
The economy ratings assess the degree to which the country approximates the ideal of non-inflationary growth with contained fiscal and external deficits and manageable debt ratios. The ratings use as raw material historical data and forecasts fed in from BMI's country databases: as historical data are revised and forecasts change, so the ratings change. Factors in the long-term rating include GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, real interest rates, exchange rates, the fiscal balance, the current account balance and external debt. A number of other structural factors are also thrown into the equation, including dependence on the primary sector, reliance on commodity imports, reliance on a single export sector and central bank independence. The factors included in the short-term rating are a subset of those in the long-term rating.
Business Environment Rating
The business environment rating is a broad indicator of the investment climate, for both domestic and foreign players. While areas such as competitiveness, finance, openness and environment comprise the bulk of the rating, there is also an important feed from the political and economy ratings. The factors considered include: the state of the national infrastructure, the education system, cronyism/ corruption, red tape, the legal framework, property rights, market access and the corporate tax regime.
Partial Table of Contents:
Chapter 1.1: Political Outlook - Dominican Republic
- Medina's Resilient Popularity To Keep Fiscal Consolidation On Track We expect President Danilo Medina's fiscal consolidation plans to continue to move forward, as his approval rating remains robust despite a sharp economic slowdown in the Dominican Republic.
Chapter 1.2: Economic Outlook - Dominican Republic
- Weak Q113 Prompts Growth Downgrade We are revising down our growth forecast for the Dominican Republic from 4.4% to 2.5% in 2013, and from 4.6% to 3.7% in 2014.
Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook - Jamaica
- Debt Woes To Exacerbate Regional Tensions Relations between Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago will remain strained in the coming months, as the two countries work to address long-standing disagreements over trade policy.
Chapter 2.2: Economic Outlook - Jamaica
- Risk Of A Credit Event Rising With the majority of Jamaican debt denominated in foreign tender, the recent rout in emerging market currencies will make it even harder for the country to maintain an already weak external financing position.
TABLE: JAMAICA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
Chapter 3.1: Political Outlook - Puerto Rico
- Rising Fiscal Challenges Amid Delicate Economy We believe Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla will face significant obstacles to addressing Puerto Rico's poor fiscal situation.
TABLE: SELECTED NEW TAX MEASURES
Chapter 3.2: Economic Outlook - Puerto Rico
- Risk Of A Double Dip Recession In FY2013 After emerging from a five-year recession in FY2012, recent economic data suggests the Puerto Rican economy could have fallen back into a recession in FY2013.
Chapter 4: Country Summaries
Cruising To A Strong Political Risk Rating
- The Bahamas receives one of the highest scores in the Caribbean in BMI's proprietary Short-Term Political Risk/Ratings, indicating the government's stable footing and adherence to constitutional norms, as well as the country's relative insularity from external threats.
TABLE: BAHAMAS - MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Unemployment Higher On Tourism And Financial Services Weakness
- We believe that weakness in the Bahamas' offshore financial services sector and tourism industry will slow economic activity, leading to a more moderate drop in unemployment than we originally expected.
BERMUDA - MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
- Short-Term Risk Remains Subdued Bermuda receives a score of 74.2 in our proprietary Short-Term Political Risk Ratings, well above the global average of 61.4, and good for the eighth-highest grade out of 22 Caribbean nations.
TABLE: BELIZE - MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
- Declining Oil Output Paves Way For Slower Growth We believe that Belize's economic growth will sharply decelerate in the coming years, as we forecast that real GDP growth will come in at 2.4% and 2.3% in 2013 and 2014, respectively, down from 5.3% in 2012.
Chapter 5: Regional
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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