2012-09-05 09:33:08 - Mexico Business Forecast Report Q2 2012 - a new country guide report on companiesandmarkets.com

Mexico will remain an emerging market under-performer for the duration of our 10-year forecast period, with our growth projections beyond 2011 significantly below consensus.

Without any significant reform of tax or energy, the economy will fail to overcome its structural fiscal weakness.

Cartel activity will continue to blight Mexicos investment outlook for the foreseeable future.

Major Forecast Changes

Since inflation picked up in the latter stages of 2011, we believe the central bank (Banxico) will cut rates by just 25 basis points (bps) in 2012, rather than the 50bps we had previously expected. We have revised up our 2012 real GDP growth forecast from 3.1% to an above-consensus 3.4% projection, as the US economy looks stronger and domestic demand remains relatively robust.

Key Risk To

 

 

Outlook

With the peso failing to experience significant appreciation following its sell-off in Q411, Banxico may take a more cautious approach to cutting rates until the currency stabilises and the extent of the imported inflationary pressure from the depreciation is fully known.The price of this business forecast report covers 4 quarterly reports on this country. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.

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