2013-03-01 16:42:29 - New Construction market report from Business Monitor International: "Mexico Infrastructure Report Q1 2013"
BMI View: Mexico's construction industry continues to progress along a robust growth path. The outlook is amongst the most stable in the Latin America region, and this is reflected in our infrastructure risk/reward ratings (RRRs), where Mexico takes the top spot in the region. The election of Enrique Pena Nieto spells further good news for construction sector growth, given his history as governor of the State of Mexico, where he presided over an ambitious infrastructure build-out and attracted private investors.
We anticipate growth to remain around the 4-5% level over the medium term, incorporating around a 0.5% increase as a result of the election (based on campaign pledges), with further upside once Nieto takes office in December 2012 and releases his
National Development Plan for the country.
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/541238_mexico_infrastructure_report_q1_2013. ..
We expect growth in 2013 to post a slight uptick on 2012, at 4.6%. We are maintaining our 4.1% estimate for 2012, based on first half growth of 5.1% and our expectation that growth will have slowed in the second half of the year following the election and in line with a planned decline in government investment in infrastructure. Planned investments for the year were down around 10%, impacting both 2012 and 2013 industry value-added.
New President, More Infrastructure
From 2013, we expect growth to accelerate slightly, and have factored in a 0.5% increase based on the election of Nieto, with real growth of 4.6% anticipated for the year. Based on campaign pledges that outlined a number of transport and social infrastructure projects, as well as his infrastructure-focused policies whilst governor of the State of Mexico, we believe Nieto will be a positive force for Mexico's infrastructure sector.
It is yet unclear how a number of programmes put in place by Calderon, such as the Second National Infrastructure Plan (NIP) (which outlines US$400bn investment over the 2013-2018 period) and FONADIN, will be continued under Nieto, although we anticipate a strong level of policy continuity.
Nieto has called for a greater private sector role in the economy and presided over the country's first healthcare public-private partnership (PPP) in the State of Mexico. For this reason, we expect the PPP law (approved in January 2012) to gain significant traction under Nieto.
However, we highlight the perennial problem that Mexico has faced with concessions - primarily the poor planning for infrastructure projects. The law will help to protect investors, which is especially topical given the May 2012 cancellation of a road concession awarded to OHL Mexico.
Sectors To Highlight
Despite Nieto's focus on transport investment in his campaign, we still expect the top-performing sector to be energy & utilities, including all sub-sectors - water infrastructure, gas pipelines and power plants and transmission & distribution (T&D). We have registered US$17.6bn worth of projects either underway or planned in the subsector. Consequently, a strong project pipeline is guiding optimistic forecasts.
Between 2013 and 2017 we forecast annual average growth of 11.6% for water infrastructure 8.5% for power plants and 5.5% for oil and gas pipelines, with the strongest growth seen over the short term. Despite a sizeable pipeline of transport infrastructure concessions outlined, the tenders will need to see improved planning and marketing.
Partial Table of Contents:
BMI Industry View
- Mexico Infrastructure SWOT
- Competitive Landscape
- Table: EQS
- Latin America
- Cement Forecasts
- Table: Mexico Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2009-2016
- Table: Mexico Cement Production and Consumption Long Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Mexico Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2009-2016
- Table: Mexico Construction And Infrastructure Industry Long Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
- Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
- Table: Mexico Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2009-2016
- Table: Mexico Transport Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2015 -2021
- Transport Infrastructure Outlook And Overview
- Major Projects Table - Transport
- Table: Major Projects - Transport
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure
- Table: Mexico Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2009-2016
- Table: Mexico Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Long Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
- Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
- Major Projects Table - Energy And Utilities
- Table: Major Projects - Energy and Utilities
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
- Table: Mexico Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data, 2009-2016
- Table: Mexico Residential and Non-residential Building Long Term Forecasts, 2014-2021
- Residential/Non-Residential Construction Outlook And Overview
- Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure
- Table: Major Projects - Construction And Social Infrastructure
- Mexico's Risk/Reward Ratings
- Regional Overview
- Table: Americas Infrastructure Risk Reward Ratings
- Empresas ICA
- Impulsora del Desarrollo y El Empleo en America Latina SAB de CV (IDEAL)
- Industry Forecasts
- Construction Industry
- Data Methodology
- New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors
- Capital Investment
- Construction Sector Employment
- Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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